انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 23 86 2025 11 22 Analysis of Developmental and Transit Capacities of Makran Coasts for Sustainable Tourism Development تحلیل ظرفیت‌های توسعه‌ای- ترانزیتی سواحل مکران در راستای توسعه گردشگری پایدار 25 41 732118 10.22034/jiga.2025.2059968.1407 FA علیرضا کلانتری دانشجوی دکترای تخصصی رشته جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه علمی جغرافیا، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. حمیدرضا محمدی دانشیار گروه علمی جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی،تهران،ایران. 0000-0002-6550-4897 ریباز قربانی نژاد دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه علمی جغرافیا، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. محمدحسن نامی دانشیار گروه علمی امنیت ملی،دانشگاه علوم و فنون فارابی، تهران،ایران. Journal Article 2025 08 17 Extended Abstract Introduction The Makran Coasts, located in southeastern Iran along the shores of the Oman Sea and the Indian Ocean, represent one of the country’s most strategically significant regions. Spanning over 1,000 kilometers across the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan, this area holds immense potential for sustainable tourism development, extending beyond cultural and social dimensions to encompass economic, transit, financial, and international aspects. This research aims to provide a comprehensive strategic analysis of the developmental and transit capacities of the Makran Coasts, exploring how these capacities can be harnessed to foster sustainable tourism as a pivotal driver for national economic diversification and regional empowerment. The study’s multidimensional approach integrates cultural heritage (notably Baluchi traditions), community empowerment, economic opportunities (such as tourism industries and the blue economy), transit potential (as a gateway to the International North-South Transport Corridor - INSTC), financial mechanisms (attracting foreign investment and project bonds), and international cooperation (partnerships with India and Central Asian countries). Methodology The research methodology employs a descriptive-analytical framework, combining qualitative and quantitative content analysis of an extensive dataset comprising library resources, official documents, field reports, and articles from the Geography Quarterly. The statistical population includes over 300 relevant documents and articles, with purposive sampling applied to select internal articles, official documents, and field reports. Data collection tools include qualitative coding using MAXQDA software, SWOT analysis, and quantitative models such as the equation E=T×M×F(where Erepresents employment, Tdenotes tourists, Mis the local multiplier, and Fis the transit multiplier) to estimate economic impacts. The model projects the creation of 50,000 jobs based on an influx of 1.5 million tourists. Findings indicate that leveraging the developmental capacities of Makran with a focus on sustainable tourism could increase Iran’s national GDP by 5 to 7 percent. However, significant barriers such as fragmented governance, lack of coordinated transit policies, and institutional disarray pose substantial challenges. The primary hypothesis of the study, which posits that “the absence of a multidimensional integrated governance system is the root cause of hindered sustainable tourism development in Makran,” has been substantiated through the analysis. Results and Discussion The Makran Coasts boast a unique geopolitical position in the Indo-Pacific region, coupled with unparalleled natural attractions (including mangrove forests, coral beaches, and Martian mountains) and a rich cultural heritage (Baluchi embroidery, traditional music, and historical fortresses). These assets position the region as a potential hub for sustainable tourism. Nevertheless, Iran’s traditional development focus on the Persian Gulf and oil-centric industries has marginalized Makran, resulting in socioeconomic vulnerabilities such as a 25 percent unemployment rate—the highest in the country—extensive ethnic migration, threats to cultural heritage due to climate change, and underutilization of transit corridors like INSTC. The study highlights a critical mismatch between Makran’s multidimensional capacities and the low level of realized sustainable tourism, attributing this discrepancy to governance failures that have led to resource wastage (e.g., the inability to attract 1.5 million potential annual tourists as per 2023 tourism statistics) and weakened national identity. From a theoretical perspective, the research draws on several frameworks, including Sustainable Tourism Theory promoted by the UNWTO, which emphasizes a balance across economic, socio-cultural, and environmental sustainability pillars. This balance is crucial for a region like Makran, with its fragile ecosystems and rich cultural tapestry. Additionally, the Destination Competitiveness Model by Crouch and Ritchie underscores that a destination’s success hinges not only on core resources and attractors but also on supporting factors (infrastructure and human resources) and effective destination management (policy-making and branding). Makran excels in core resources but lags in management and support systems. Theories of Integrated Governance and Stakeholder Theory further inform the analysis, identifying coordination failures and the need for active stakeholder engagement as central issues in Makran’s development trajectory. The study’s innovation lies in its layered analysis of developmental capacities, integrating cultural-social dimensions (heritage preservation and local participation), economic aspects (tourism and fisheries industries), transit potential (gateway to Central Asia via INSTC), financial strategies (foreign direct investment), and international diplomacy (Indo-Iranian collaboration). Comparative models from global case studies such as Shenzhen, Jebel Ali, Dubai, Gwadar, and Shanghai provide actionable insights. For <span lang="EN" style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> instance, Dubai’s synergy of transit and luxury tourism, Gwadar’s transit-focused development under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Shanghai’s integrated governance model offer valuable lessons for Makran. The research proposes a novel quantitative model, S=P_m/P_s×I(where P_mis Makran’s potential, P_sis the potential of comparative cases, and Iis the governance index), revealing a 75 percent similarity with benchmarks like Dubai, contingent on governance improvements. Key findings from the SWOT analysis reveal strengths such as rich heritage and INSTC access, weaknesses including governance fragmentation and sanctions, opportunities like partnerships with India and Russia, and threats such as competition from Gwadar and environmental risks. The cultural-social analysis highlights attractions like the 2,500-year-old Tis Fort and Baluchi festivals, capable of attracting 300,000 cultural tourists annually, akin to Dubai’s Heritage Village. Economically, the blue economy (fisheries and aquaculture) and heavy industries (petrochemicals and steel) could generate 10 billion from India and Russia) could fund 20 percent of tourism infrastructure, drawing from Dubai’s Sukuk model. Internationally, Chabahar’s role as an INSTC hub fosters cultural diplomacy, targeting 500,000 Asian tourists. Conclusion this research confirms that overcoming governance challenges through an integrated, cross-sectoral management model—potentially via a “National Makran Development Organization”—could transform the Makran Coasts into a sustainable tourism hub. Such a transformation promises 90,000 jobs and a $10 billion GDP boost, positioning Makran as a national development exemplar. Recommendations include legislative reforms for a unified governance body, urgent infrastructure investments (e.g., Chabahar-Zahidan railway), and operational strategies like branding and community-based tourism funds. This study bridges domestic and global research gaps, offering a blueprint for sustainable development in a geopolitically critical region, especially amid post-Ukraine war dynamics enhancing INSTC’s relevance. سواحل مکران، به عنوان یکی از استراتژیک‌ترین مناطق ایران با دسترسی مستقیم به اقیانوس هند، پتانسیل عظیمی برای توسعه گردشگری پایدار دارد که فراتر از جنبه‌های فرهنگی و اجتماعی، شامل ابعاد اقتصادی، ترانزیتی، مالی و بین‌المللی می‌شود. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل جامع ظرفیت‌های توسعه‌ای این منطقه، از جمله میراث فرهنگی بلوچی، توانمندسازی جوامع محلی، فرصت‌های اقتصادی (مانند صنایع گردشگری و اقتصاد آبی)، ترانزیتی (نقش دروازه INSTC و کاهش تمرکز بر خلیج فارس)، مالی (جذب سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و اوراق پروژه) و بین‌المللی (همکاری با هند و کشورهای آسیای مرکزی) انجام شده است. روش تحقیق توصیفی-تحلیلی و مبتنی بر تحلیل محتوای کیفی و کمی داده‌های کتابخانه‌ای، اسنادی، گزارش‌های رسمی و مقالات از فصلنامه جغرافیا است. جامعه آماری شامل بیش از ۳۰۰ سند و مقاله مرتبط است و نمونه‌گیری هدفمند (مقالات داخلی، سند های رسمی و گزارش های میدانی) انجام شده. ابزارها شامل کدگذاری کیفی (با MAXQDA)، مدل SWOT و روابط کمی مانند: E=T×M×F (E: اشتغال، T: گردشگران، M: ضریب محلی، F: ضریب ترانزیتی) برای تخمین اثرات اقتصادی (۵۰,۰۰۰ شغل از ۱.۵ میلیون گردشگر) است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که ظرفیت‌های توسعه‌ای مکران، با تمرکز بر گردشگری پایدار، می‌تواند GDP (تولید ناخالص ملی) را ۵ تا ۷ درصد افزایش دهد، اما موانع اصلی را می توان شامل تشتت مدیریت و ناهماهنگی و کامل نبودن شبکه ترانزیتی دانست. فرضیه اصلی مبنی بر «فقدان نظام حکمرانی یکپارچه چندبعدی، ریشه‌ای‌ترین مانع توسعه گردشگری پایدار مکران است»، تأیید می‌گردد. نوآوری پژوهش در ادغام ابعاد چندگانه و پیشنهاد مدل مدیریت فرابخشی با استناد به تجارب جهانی (شنزن و جبل علی) است.

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