انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Future research on the physical dimensions of historical textures in the direction of urban regeneration ( Case Study:Arak city) آینده‌پژوهی ابعاد بافت‌های تاریخی و بازآفرینی شهری (مطالعه موردی: شهر اراک) 85 105 737038 10.22034/jiga.2026.2082693.1477 FA عین الله شعبانی گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران محمدتقی معصومی گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران رسول صمدزاده گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران Journal Article 2026 02 20 Extended Abstract Introduction Historic urban fabrics, as the original cores of Iranian cities, play a fundamental role in urban identity and physical sustainability. However, structural deterioration, uncoordinated urban development, and the lack of forward-looking planning have placed these areas at serious risk. Urban regeneration has therefore emerged as an integrated, human-centered approach aimed at revitalizing such districts. Thety of Arak, with a considerable extent of inefficient urban fabric, requires an analytical and future-oriented strategy for the regeneration of its historic core. This study employs structural analysis and the MICMAC technique to identify the key drivers influencing the physical dimension of regeneration. A review of the literature indicates that previous studies have largely focused on conceptual frameworks of sustainable regeneration, stakeholder participation, and scenario planning. Domestic research has mainly addressed the four-dimensional framework of regeneration and the development of future scenarios, while international studies emphasize participation, accessibility, and knowledge management. Nevertheless, a comprehensive and applied structural analysis of the key drivers shaping the future physical condition of historic urban fabrics remains underexplored—a gap this study seeks to address. Methodology This study is descriptive–analytical and applied with a foresight approach, aiming to identify the key drivers affecting the regeneration of the physical dimensions of the historic fabric of Arak city. To achieve this, the Cross-Impact Analysis (MICMAC) method was employed. In this approach, 44 factors were identified and evaluated by 25 experts using pairwise comparison questionnaires. The collected data were analyzed using MICMAC software to extract the key drivers. The analysis included systemic understanding, assessment of direct and indirect impacts, identification of main drivers for scenario development, overall system comprehension, detection of destabilizing factors, and environmental analysis based on the influence of variables. Results and Discussion In this study, the key variables influencing the regeneration of the historic fabric were first identified through the review of upstream documents and library-based sources. Using the Delphi method and expert consultation, the variables were finalized. Subsequently, 44 selected variables were evaluated within a 44×44 matrix based on their level of influence (ranging from 0 to 3) and analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis method to determine direct and indirect relationships among them. The results indicate that the regeneration system of the historic fabric of Arak is dynamic and unstable, meaning that many variables simultaneously demonstrate both high influence and high dependence. Based on the dispersion analysis, the variables were classified into five categories: influential factors, bidirectional factors, regulatory factors, dependent factors, and independent factors. Among the variables, "integrated management of the historic fabric," "government facilitation," "enactment of specific regeneration laws," and "establishment of legal and regulatory instruments" exhibited the highest levels of direct and indirect influence and were identified as the backbone of the regeneration system. In contrast, variables such as infrastructure quality, transportation development, and sustainable employment were found to be highly dependent on other factors. A significant number of variables were categorized as bidirectional factors, including heritage conservation and restoration, adaptive reuse of buildings, functional diversity, citizen participation, and public–private investment. These variables are influenced by managerial and legal structures while also acting as strategic drivers that shape the overall system. Out of the 44 variables analyzed, 29 were identified as key factors affecting the physical regeneration of the historic fabric. Overall, the findings demonstrate that successful regeneration of historic urban areas depends on the complex interaction of managerial, legal, social, cultural, and economic dimensions. Solely focusing on physical interventions is insufficient. The relative instability of the system further suggests that changes in key drivers may produce widespread systemic impacts. Therefore, adopting a comprehensive, systemic, and future-oriented planning approach is essential to balance heritage preservation with contemporary urban functionality and long-term sustainability. Conclusion The complexity of urban challenges and the rapid advancement of technology have made urban management and planning increasingly difficult. The findings of this study indicate that, among 44 factors influencing the physical regeneration of the historic fabric of Arak, 29 key factors were identified as the main drivers. The most influential of these include integrated management of the historic fabric, government facilitation, and the enactment of specific regeneration laws. Analysis of different dimensions revealed that the socio-cultural dimension, with eight key drivers, holds the greatest importance, followed by the managerial, economic, political, physical, and environmental dimensions, respectively. These results align with previous studies, highlighting the importance of stakeholder participation, local community education, social security, and modernization of functions in sustainable regeneration. Overall, successful regeneration of historic urban fabric requires a systematic, foresight-driven, and multidimensional approach, with the identified drivers forming the backbone of this process. Coordinated management of these factors is essential for achieving sustainable regeneration of Arak's historic districts. پیچیدگی و چندبعدی بودن مشکلات و مسائل شهری همراه با رشد سریع فناوری و جهانی شدن الگوهای تولید، فزونی یافته و عدم ثبات شرایط و احتمال وقوع آینده‌های گوناگون سبب دشواری تصمیم‌گیری و برنامه‌ریزی در خصوص مسائل شهری شده است. در چنین شرایطی بازآفرینی شهری پایدار با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند راهکاری برای مشکلات بافت‌های ناکارآمد شهری و به طور خاص بافت‌های تاریخی باشد؛ لذا بایستی هرگونه مسائل و موضوعات در ارتباط با بازآفرینی بافت‌های ناکارآمد شهری به صورت نگاه چندبعدی و ترکیبی از عوامل مختلف مورد سنجش قرار بگیرد. بدین منظور در پژوهش حاضر سعی بر آن است که پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر در راستای باز‌آفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر اراک شناسایی و تحلیل شوند. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت بر اساس روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی صورت گرفته است. جهت جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از روش آمیخته مبتنی بر مصاحبه و تکنیک دلفی و همچنین روش اسنادی و بررسی میدانی بهره گرفته شده است. جامعه آماری 25 نفر از کارشناسان خبره شهری بر اساس نمونه‌گیری گلوله‌برفی می‌باشد که با روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل ساختاری در نرم‌افزار MICMAC پردازش‌شده است. این مقاله با استفاده از روش‌های دلفی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک به شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی پرداخته است. نتیجه به دست آمده بعد از وارد کردن امتیازات به نرم‌افزار میک‌مک مشخص گردید که 29 عامل به عنوان عوامل اصلی و پیشران در توسعه باز‌آفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر اراک شناخته شدند که در آن عواملی مانند مدیریت یکپارچه بافت تاریخی، تسهیل‌گری دولت و وضع قوانین خاص بازآفرینی به طور مشترک، در رتبه‌های اول و دوم تأثیرگذاری قرار دارند و جزو پیشران‌های کلیدی بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر اراک محسوب می‌شوند.

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