انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Explaining the Consequences of Spatial Management Fragmentation on Effective Governance in Ahvaz Metropolis تبیین پیامدهای چندپارگی مدیریت فضایی بر حکمرانی کارآمد در کلانشهر اهواز 1 20 736478 10.22034/jiga.2026.2073202.1448 FA افشین کرمی استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران. 0000-0003-0077-595X سعید خاتم فوق دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی،دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-3533-8688 Journal Article 2025 10 10 Extended Abstract Introduction The administration of cities in Iran faces a fundamental challenge rooted in the multiplicity and diversity of administrative-spatial division levels within its metropolises. Various government organizations, departments, and sectors often operate based on their own specific, and often conflicting, spatial boundaries within a single urban area. This heterogeneity and lack of uniformity in spatial divisions lead to unnecessary complexity, a proliferation of administrative boundaries, and significant obstacles to achieving good urban governance. Such fragmentation results in scattered authority, reduced transparency, increased coordination costs, and ultimately, inefficient public service delivery and a decline in the quality of life for citizens. The city of Ahvaz, as a major Iranian metropolis, exemplifies these challenges. Its specific geographical, social, and economic characteristics—including high migration rates, widespread informal settlements, and ethnic-cultural diversity—intensify the negative impacts of this administrative-spatial fragmentation. The misalignment between political boundaries, management zones, and service areas among different institutions (such as the Municipality, Governorate, Ministry departments, and independent organizations) leads to an unequal distribution of resources, a lack of coherence in urban planning, and diminished accountability of local institutions. This research seeks to address this gap by conducting a case study of Ahvaz. The primary research question is: What impact do heterogeneous administrative-spatial divisions have on the quality of governance in Ahvaz metropolis? Furthermore, it explores how these dysfunctions affect the equitable distribution of services, coordination among governance institutions, and citizen participation. Ultimately, the study investigates whether reforming the structure of administrative divisions can lead to improved governance quality in Iranian metropolises. Methodology This research is qualitative, exploratory, and applied in its approach. It employs a mixed-methods design to comprehensively investigate the complex phenomenon under study. Qualitative Phase: The primary objective of this phase was to identify the key components and indicators influencing the relationship between heterogeneous divisions and governance quality. The Delphi technique was utilized to gather and refine expert opinions. The sampling method for this phase was snowball sampling, a non-probability technique suitable for reaching knowledgeable experts in a specific field. The selection criteria for experts included theoretical mastery, practical experience, willingness to participate, and accessibility. The data collection process continued until theoretical saturation was achieved in the data coding process, ultimately leading to the participation of 15 experts. Through continuous comparative analysis of the interview data, four main categories (factors) emerged. Quantitative Phase (Modeling): Following the qualitative analysis, the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was used to structure the relationships between the identified factors and determine their hierarchical levels. A semi-structured questionnaire based on a Likert scale, containing the factors extracted from the interviews, was distributed among the same panel of experts. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using Lawshe's method, where the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) for all indicators was calculated to be 1. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using the test-retest method, with correlation coefficients above 0.7, confirming acceptable reliability. The ISM process involved several steps: 1) Developing the Structural Self-Interaction Matrix (SSIM) to show pairwise contextual relationships between factors; 2) Creating the initial reachability matrix; 3) Developing the final reachability matrix; and 4) Level partitioning to determine the hierarchy of factors. Finally, using MICMAC (Matrice d'Impacts Croisés-Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement) analysis, the factors were categorized based on their driving power and dependence, providing insights into their influence within the system. Results and Discussion The findings indicate that the heterogeneous administrative-spatial structure in Ahvaz is not merely a static structural problem but a dynamic, self-reinforcing systemic one. Negative feedback loops, such as institutional competition over resources and territory, perpetuate and even exacerbate the initial fragmentation. For instance, centralization in national policymating (a root cause) creates parallel institutions, leading to a multiplicity of decision-making centers. This increases coordination costs, fosters institutional rivalry, and results in an unfair distribution of urban amenities. The final manifestation of this chain reaction is a decline in service quality, public dissatisfaction, and a pervasive inefficiency in urban governance. This fragmentation manifests in two key dimensions in Ahvaz: a) Spatial-Managerial Disintegration: The misalignment between formal boundaries (e.g., municipality zones) and real settlement patterns, especially in peri-urban areas, creates planning incoherence. b) Project Delays and Spatial Inequality: Overlapping responsibilities and non-coterminous administrative areas lead to delays in project implementation and reinforce spatial inequalities. Therefore, the ISM and MICMAC models collectively demonstrate that tackling this issue requires a multi-pronged approach. Isolated interventions, such as merely changing a law or merging two departments, are likely to be ineffective because of the strong interlinkages and feedback within the system. Conclusion This study concludes that the heterogeneous administrative-spatial divisions in Ahvaz fundamentally weaken the quality of urban governance by creating dispersed power centers, reducing transparency, and inflating transactional costs. The problem is systemic and self-perpetuating. The research affirms that reforming this structure is a critical prerequisite for enhancing integrated urban management and unlocking significant local, national, and regional development opportunities for Ahvaz. The primary implication of this research is that breaking this vicious cycle requires simultaneous and coordinated intervention at three distinct levels: Legal Level: Reforming centralized laws and regulations that create and empower parallel institutions. Institutional Level: Promoting organizational integration and redefining mandates to reduce overlap and foster collaboration among different entities operating in the urban space. Social Level: Strengthening mechanisms for citizen participation and accountability to create bottom-up pressure for good governance and ensure that reforms are responsive to local needs. The findings of this study are consistent with prior research on political-space management and administrative divisions in Iran, underscoring the generalized nature of this challenge across the country's metropolises. Future research could focus on developing detailed action plans for implementing the proposed multi-level interventions and measuring their impact over time. یکی از چالش‌های اساسی در اداره شهرهای ایران، به‌ویژه کلان‌شهرها، تعدد و تنوع سطوح تقسیمات اداری-فضایی است. سازمان‌ها، ادارات و بخش‌های مختلف دولتی معمولاً در کلان‌شهرها تقسیمات فضایی مخصوص به خود را دارند که این ناهمگونی و ناهمسطحی باعث پیچیدگی بی‌مورد تقسیمات فضایی-اداری و ایجاد چالش در مسیر حکمرانی مطلوب می‌شود. این پژوهش به بررسی ناهمگونی تقسیمات فضایی-اداری در کلان‌شهر اهواز و چالش‌های ناشی از آن می‌پردازد. این تحقیق از نظر روش در زمره تحقیقات کیفی و از نوع اکتشافی-کاربردی است. در بخش کیفی از تکنیک دلفی برای تعیین مؤلفه‌ها و شاخص‌های تحقیق استفاده شده و با 15 خبره مصاحبه به عمل آمده است. سپس با استفاده از روش مدل‌سازی ساختاری-تفسیری (ISM) و تحلیل MICMAC، سطح‌بندی و تحلیل عوامل انجام شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که تقسیمات ناهمگون اداری-فضایی در اهواز نه‌تنها یک مسأله ساختاری، بلکه یک مشکل سیستمی خودتقویت‌گر است که از طریق بازخوردهای منفی مانند رقابت نهادها می‌تواند تداوم یابد. مدل نهایی چهار عامل کلیدی را در سطوح مختلف نشان می‌دهد: مدیریت یکپارچه شهری در سطح بنیادی، شاخص قانونی و حقوقی در سطح سوم، کیفیت زندگی در سطح دوم و حکمرانی در سطح اول. این ناهمگونی از طریق ایجاد پراکندگی قدرت، کاهش شفافیت و افزایش هزینه‌های تعامل، کیفیت حکمرانی شهری را تضعیف می‌کند. شکستن این چرخه معیوب تنها با مداخله هم‌زمان در سطوح قانونی (اصلاح قوانین متمرکز)، نهادی (یکپارچه‌سازی سازمانی) و اجتماعی ممکن است. این پژوهش لزوم بازنگری اساسی در تقسیمات اداری-فضایی را به عنوان عاملی کلیدی در بهبود حکمرانی شهری و مدیریت یکپارچه در کلان‌شهر اهواز تأیید می‌کند.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_736478_1317e4c5dc198d2de4dd884e664d9c1a.pdf

انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Analyzing the Geomilitary and Geotourism (Case Study: Kabudrahang County) تحلیل ژئومیلیتاری و ژئوتوریستی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان کبودراهنگ) 21 44 736479 10.22034/jiga.2026.2075158.1453 FA مسلم سلطانی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیای سیاسی (مطالعات ایران)، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0009-0002-9689-4047 اسکندر مرادی استادیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-0306-0044 نگین عالی استادیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ، ایران. 0000-0001-5188-5126 Journal Article 2025 11 19 Influence and Influenceability of people on geographical phenomena, may be known as the most important feature of geography.Because geography influences thought, and ultimately thought creates a new geography and makes the place different from before, political geographers, and especially geopolitics, need to know. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the environment and human beings in creating new behaviors and geographical environments to continue living and showing power in the field of foreign relations.This research with a descriptive-analytical approach, based on library and field data, using various methods such as multi-criteria decision-making(TOPSIS), hierarchical analysis (SWOT), GIS, and Geometric Mean method (AHP- Fuzzy Buckley),by forming pairwise comparisons, calculating the fuzzy and normal weights obtained from the questionnaires distributed among the statistical population equal to the sample size (20 educated people and regional managers), concluded that natural factors such as topography by weight 0.2363 and gaining 1, sufficient land to expand various activities such as military or tourism with a weight of 0.2138 with a rank of 2 and many human beings such as strategic and geopolitical position of the region with rank 4 and distance from air corridors with a rank of 5 out of 10 The criterion in question is effective in locating and architecture of strategic points and military sites to prepare the government against the attacks of enemies, which should be considered the role of all of them in the analysis and capacity assessment of development or establishment of new military bases. In the geotourist discussion, for the sustainable development of tourism in Ali Sadr region, adopting strategies such as using the natural potentials of the environment to improve living standards of the people of the region and permanent exhibitions of local products and festivals Indoor and outdoor are necessary تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری مردم از پدیده های جغرافیایی، شاید به منزله مهمترین خصیصه علم جغرافیا شناخته شود. از آنجا که جغرافیا اندیشه را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد و در نهایت اندیشه، جغرافیای جدیدی را به وجود می‌آورد و مکان را متفاوت‌ترازگذشته می نمایدجغرافیدان سیاسی و بالاخص به طور ویژه‌تر ژئوپلیتسین لازم است که بدان شناخت حاصل نماید. هدف ازاین پژوهش تحلیل میزان تاثیرپذیری محیط و انسان از هم در خلق رفتارها و محیط های جدید جغرافیایی جهت ادامه زندگی و قدرت‌نمایی در عرصه روابط خارجی است. این پژوهش با رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی، با تکیه بر داده‌های کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی، با بهره گیری از روش‌های مخنلف ازجمله مدل‌های تصمبم گیری چندشاخصه(TOPSIS)،تحلیل‌ سلسله مراتبی(SWOT)،سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی(GIS) و روش میانگین هندسی(AHP فازی بوکلی)،باتشکیل مقایسات زوجی،محاسبه اوزان فازی و نرمال بدست آمده از پرسشنامه های توزیع شده بین جامعه آماری برابر با حجم نمونه(به تعداد۲۰نفرازتحصیلکردگان ومدیران منطقه ای)،به این نتیجه رسیدکه عوامل طبیعی مثل توپوگرافی با وزن۰/۲۳۶۳و کسب رتبه۱، زمین کافی برای گسترش فعالیت‌های مختلف چون نظامی یاگردشگری با وزن۰/۲۱۳۸ با رتبه۲و انسانی بسیاری چون موقعیت استراتژیکی و ژئوپلیتیکی منطقه با رتبه۴و رعایت فاصله از دالانهای هوایی با رتبه۵ از۱۰زیرمعیار مدنظر، در مکان‌یابی و معماری نقاط استراتژیک و سایتهای نظامی جهت آمادگی حکومت در برابر هجمه های دشمنان تاثیرگذار است که باید نقش همه آنها را در تجزیه و تحلیل ها و ظرفیت سنجی توسعه یا استقرار پایگاههای نظامی جدید در نظر گرفت. در بحث ژئوتوریستی، برای توسعه پایدار گردشگری در منطقه علیصدر، اتخاذ راهبردهایی چون استفاده از پتانسیل‌های طبیعی محیط برای ارتقاء سطح زندگی مردمان منطقه و برپایی دائمی نمایشگاه های تولیدات و جشنواره های بومی منطقه جهت افزایش طول مدت اقامت گردشگران و جهانگردان داخلی و خارجی ضروری می‌نماید

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انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Analysis of Urban Management Challenges in Coastal Cities of Northern Iran with Emphasis on Physical–Spatial and Social Indicators (Case Study: Chalus City) تحلیل چالش‌های مدیریت شهری در شهرهای ساحلی شمال ایران با تأکید بر شاخص‌های کالبدی–فضایی و اجتماعی (مطالعه موردی: شهر چالوس) 45 59 736834 10.22034/jiga.2026.2076095.1455 FA سید علی اصغر مطهری دانشجو دکتری‌‌، گروه جغرافیا واحد چالوس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی‌‌، چالوس‌‌، ایران امنه حقزاد گروه جغرافیا-دانشکده علوم انسانی-دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد چالوس-ایران لیلا ابراهیمی استادیارگروه جغرافیا‌‌، واحد چالوس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی‌‌، چالوس‌‌، ایران کیا بزرگمهر استادیارگروه جغرافیا‌‌، واحد چالوس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی‌‌، چالوس‌‌، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 01 The rapid growth of urbanization, land use change, and the spread of irregular construction in the coastal cities of northern Iran have created numerous challenges in the field of urban management. The present study was conducted in a descriptive-analytical manner with the aim of analyzing the status of urban management in Chalus city and examining its physical-spatial and social challenges. The research data were collected through library studies, field observations, and distributing questionnaires among urban managers and experts. The present study is of an applied type in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine and explain the status of physical-spatial and social indicators of Chalus city from the perspective of urban management by utilizing field data and statistical analyses. The research method is based on a combination of documentary and survey approaches. Excel software and t and Friedman statistical tests were used to analyze the data. The results show that the status of physical-spatial, social and cultural indicators in Chalus city is undesirable and urban management is incoherent and institutionally dispersed in responding to development and environmental needs. The findings indicate that the horizontal expansion of the city, the change in the use of agricultural and garden lands, the lack of urban service infrastructure, the weakness of public participation and the dominance of short-term attitudes in urban decision-making are among the most important challenges. The results of this study emphasize the need to reform the management structure of coastal cities and plan within the framework of sustainable development principles. The results show that the urban management of Chalus has performed inefficiently in all physical-spatial, managerial, economic and environmental indicators in the past two decades and has played a mostly passive and reactive role. رشد شتابان شهرنشینی، تغییر کاربری اراضی و گسترش ساخت‌وسازهای بی‌ضابطه در شهرهای ساحلی شمال ایران، چالش‌های متعددی را در عرصه مدیریت شهری ایجاد کرده است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل وضعیت مدیریت شهری شهر چالوس و بررسی چالش‌های کالبدی–فضایی و اجتماعی آن، به شیوه توصیفی–تحلیلی انجام گرفته است. داده‌های تحقیق از طریق مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای، مشاهدات میدانی و توزیع پرسش‌نامه بین مدیران و کارشناسان شهری گردآوری شد. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، از نوع کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، توصیفی–تحلیلی است. در این تحقیق تلاش شده است تا با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های میدانی و تحلیل‌های آماری، وضعیت شاخص‌های کالبدی–فضایی و اجتماعی شهر چالوس از منظر مدیریت شهری مورد بررسی و تبیین قرار گیرد. روش انجام پژوهش مبتنی بر ترکیب رویکردهای اسنادی و پیمایشی است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزار Excel و آزمون‌های آماری t و فریدمن استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که وضعیت شاخص‌های کالبدی–فضایی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی در شهر چالوس نامطلوب است و مدیریت شهری در پاسخ‌گویی به نیازهای توسعه‌ای و زیست‌محیطی دچار ناهماهنگی و پراکندگی نهادی است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که گسترش افقی شهر، تغییر کاربری اراضی کشاورزی و باغی، کمبود زیرساخت‌های خدمات شهری، ضعف مشارکت مردمی و غلبه نگرش‌های کوتاه‌مدت بر تصمیم‌گیری‌های شهری از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های موجود به شمار می‌آیند. نتایج این پژوهش بر ضرورت اصلاح ساختار مدیریتی شهرهای ساحلی و برنامه‌ریزی در چارچوب اصول توسعه پایدار تأکید دارد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که مدیریت شهری چالوس در دو دهه گذشته در تمام شاخص‌های کالبدی–فضایی، مدیریتی، اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی عملکردی ناکارآمد داشته و بیشتر نقش انفعالی و واکنشی ایفا کرده است.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_736834_2ba942bd3fd25b1c4d96078e06e50bdc.pdf

انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Resilience of Local Governance against Cognitive Warfare: A Case Study of Mashhad, Zahedan, and Tabriz تاب آوری حکمرانی در مقیاس محلی در برابر جنگ شناختی(مطالعه موردی: مشهد، زاهدان و تبریز) 61 83 736956 10.22034/jiga.2026.736956 FA نرجس سادات حسینی نصرآبادی استادیار گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران 0000-0001-7427-5400 Journal Article 2025 12 09 Extended Abstract Introduction By synthesizing the frameworks of critical political geography, urban resilience theory, and cognitive security studies, this article argues that effective resistance against cognitive warfare necessitates a fundamental reconceptualization of local governance models. It demonstrates that conventional governance structures in border regions—which are predominantly reactive, centralized, and grounded in the hard-security paradigm—prove inadequate when confronted with the invisible and multifaceted threats posed by cognitive warfare. Concentrating on Iran's border cities, which offer a rich exemplar of contemporary geopolitical complexities, this research addresses the central question: How can local governance be devised not only to withstand cognitive attacks but also to consolidate national security at the local level by reinforcing cognitive resilience? The significance of this research is threefold. First, it presents the first comprehensive geography-oriented model for comprehending and countering cognitive warfare at the local scale. Second, it advocates for a paradigmatic shift from hard security to soft security in the governance of border territories. Third, it offers operational strategies that can serve as a transferable template for other border regions worldwide that are exposed to analogous threats. Indeed, in the contemporary era, cognitive geography has become as consequential as physical geography in determining the destinies of nations. This research seeks to chart a pathway toward resilient governance in the twenty-first century, demonstrating that the reinforcement of local governance constitutes not merely a defensive imperative but also a historic opportunity to consolidate national cohesion and redefine the very concept of resilience in the age of asymmetric warfare. The article's innovation resides in its proposition of the first place-based and geographically grounded framework for addressing cognitive warfare at the level of local governance, as well as in its synthesis of political geography theories with cognitive studies within a border-specific context. Methodology The present study, being fundamental-developmental in orientation, adopts a mixed-methods approach that integrates critical political geography, urban resilience theory, and cognitive security studies. Employing qualitative techniques—specifically, thematic analysis of in-depth interviews with local managers and leaders across the three border cities of Mashhad, Zahedan, and Tabriz, alongside geo-security analysis—the research findings were derived and quantified using a Likert scale (ranging from 1 to 5). Results and Discussion This study, by focusing on Iran's border cities as the "geopolitical laboratories" of the era of asymmetric warfare, has demonstrated that cognitive warfare is no longer an abstract concept confined to strategic documents, but rather a tangible, everyday reality that systematically targets the social fabric, public trust, and ultimately, local governance itself. The findings reveal that cognitive threats, by intelligently exploiting historical and structural vulnerabilities—ranging from relative deprivation to identity fault lines—are actively remapping the political geography of borders. In this redefinition, the border ceases to be a mere physical demarcation and instead becomes a porous, expansive, and deeply personalized "cognitive space," wherein the primary battle is waged for the conquest of minds and hearts. The comparative study of Mashhad, Zahedan, and Tabriz confirms a central paradox: the more complex the geopolitical position of a border city and the more heterogeneous its social context, the greater its susceptibility to disruptive narrative-building; yet simultaneously, the richer its inherent potential for cultivating resilience through social capital and collective intelligence. Nevertheless, the current traditional and centralized governance apparatus—characterized by sluggish, compartmentalized, and non-transparent structures—markedly diminishes urban resilience in the face of decentralized and diffuse threats. The profound disconnect between the very nature of these threats and the existing response capacity constitutes the foremost challenge confronting policymakers. In response to this challenge, this article proposes the PREVENT model as a scientific-operational roadmap. The strength of this framework lies in its multidimensional synthesis: the integration of technology (situational monitoring) with society (reinforcing social capital); the fusion of preemptive action (cognitive literacy) with adaptive responses (institutional agility); and the combination of local-level initiatives (community trust councils) with networked, cross-scalar collaborations. This model posits that resilience is not a static "state" to be achieved through the construction of virtual walls, but rather a dynamic "capability" for learning, adaptation, and transformation one that thrives fundamentally on trust, participation, and transparency. Conclusion Ultimately, in the era of cognitive warfare, national security is inextricably contingent upon local resilience. The defense of physical borders, absent the robust protection of the "cognitive space" inhabited by borderland citizens, remains inherently incomplete and fragile. Consequently, we urgently require a fundamental paradigmatic shift in the governance of border regions: a transition from a security-centric, top-down approach toward a resilience-oriented, facilitative one; a move from a focus on threat eradication toward a focus on community strengthening; and a departure from the logic of disconnection and protection in favor of a logic of connection and participation. This transition can only be realized through the meaningful devolution of authority, resources, and trust to local institutions and urban communities. The proposed model offers an adaptable framework for any border region across the globe characterized by ethnic, religious, or historical diversity that finds itself exposed to cognitive threats. This research serves as an invitation to recognize a fundamental truth of the complex geography of the twenty-first century: the most resilient cities are not necessarily those with the most formidable defensive infrastructures, but rather those that cultivate the strongest networks of trust, the most flexible institutions, and the most perceptive and discerning citizens. Ultimately, national security will be forged and decided upon in the streets, neighborhoods, and everyday discourses of its border cities. در دهه‌های اخیر، مرزها از کارکردهای صرفاً دفاعی-نظامی فراتر رفته و به عرصه‌های کانونی تولید و رقابت امنیتی تبدل شده‌اند. این مقاله با اتکا به جغرافیای سیاسی انتقادی، استدلال می‌کند که «جنگ شناختی» به‌مثابه گونه‌ای سازمان‌یافته از مداخله در ادراکات، هویت‌ها و وفاداری‌های جمعی از طریق رسانه‌های نوین، روایت‌سازی هدفمند و شایعات مهندسی‌شده تاب‌آوری حکمرانی محلی در مناطق مرزی ایران را با چالشی ساختاری مواجه کرده است. پرسش محوری آن است که حکمرانی محلی در شهرهای مرزی چگونه می‌تواند در برابر این تهدیدات نامرئیِ برساخته از پویایی‌های ژئوپلیتیکی، تاب‌آوری خود را ارتقا داده و امنیت را در مقیاس محلی بازتولید کند. پژوهش با رویکردی ترکیبی و با هم‌نشینی چارچوب‌های جغرافیای سیاسی انتقادی، نظریه تاب‌آوری شهری و مطالعات امنیت شناختی، و با تکیه بر روش‌شناسی کیفی شامل تحلیل مضمونِ مصاحبه‌های عمیق با مدیران و رهبران محلی در سه شهر مشهد، زاهدان و تبریز؛ تحلیل جغرافیایی-امنیتی الگوهای انتشار محتوای دستکاری‌شده؛ و سناریونویسی انجام شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که شهرهای مرزی ایران، به‌واسطه ناهمگونی‌های قومی-مذهبی، پیوندهای فراملی و دسترسی به رسانه‌های برون‌مرزی، به کانون‌های آزمایش و تشدید جنگ شناختی تبدل شده‌اند. سازوکارهای اثرگذاری این جنگ شامل فرسایش اعتماد عمومی به نهادهای محلی، قطبی‌سازی و شکاف‌های هویتی، ایجاد خلأهای گفتمانی و بازنویسی روایت‌های تاریخی، و فعال‌سازی و تشدید نارضایتی‌های ساختاری و اقتصادی است. برهم‌کنش این سازوکارها به تضعیف سرمایه اجتماعی و سیاسی محلی انجامیده و آسیب‌پذیری در برابر بی‌ثباتی را افزایش می‌دهد. این نتایج، با برجسته‌سازی پیوند میان فضا، ادراک و قدرت، نشان می‌دهد که ارتقای تاب‌آوری حکمرانی محلی مستلزم راهبردهایی فراتر از مداخلات سخت‌افزاری و معطوف به تقویت اعتماد، مدیریت روایت‌ها و بازآرایی نهادی در مقیاس محلی است.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_736956_6f54d5f880ea388412ee15df172b163b.pdf

انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Future research on the physical dimensions of historical textures in the direction of urban regeneration ( Case Study:Arak city) آینده‌پژوهی ابعاد بافت‌های تاریخی و بازآفرینی شهری (مطالعه موردی: شهر اراک) 85 105 737038 10.22034/jiga.2026.2082693.1477 FA عین الله شعبانی گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران محمدتقی معصومی گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران رسول صمدزاده گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران Journal Article 2026 02 20 Extended Abstract Introduction Historic urban fabrics, as the original cores of Iranian cities, play a fundamental role in urban identity and physical sustainability. However, structural deterioration, uncoordinated urban development, and the lack of forward-looking planning have placed these areas at serious risk. Urban regeneration has therefore emerged as an integrated, human-centered approach aimed at revitalizing such districts. Thety of Arak, with a considerable extent of inefficient urban fabric, requires an analytical and future-oriented strategy for the regeneration of its historic core. This study employs structural analysis and the MICMAC technique to identify the key drivers influencing the physical dimension of regeneration. A review of the literature indicates that previous studies have largely focused on conceptual frameworks of sustainable regeneration, stakeholder participation, and scenario planning. Domestic research has mainly addressed the four-dimensional framework of regeneration and the development of future scenarios, while international studies emphasize participation, accessibility, and knowledge management. Nevertheless, a comprehensive and applied structural analysis of the key drivers shaping the future physical condition of historic urban fabrics remains underexplored—a gap this study seeks to address. Methodology This study is descriptive–analytical and applied with a foresight approach, aiming to identify the key drivers affecting the regeneration of the physical dimensions of the historic fabric of Arak city. To achieve this, the Cross-Impact Analysis (MICMAC) method was employed. In this approach, 44 factors were identified and evaluated by 25 experts using pairwise comparison questionnaires. The collected data were analyzed using MICMAC software to extract the key drivers. The analysis included systemic understanding, assessment of direct and indirect impacts, identification of main drivers for scenario development, overall system comprehension, detection of destabilizing factors, and environmental analysis based on the influence of variables. Results and Discussion In this study, the key variables influencing the regeneration of the historic fabric were first identified through the review of upstream documents and library-based sources. Using the Delphi method and expert consultation, the variables were finalized. Subsequently, 44 selected variables were evaluated within a 44×44 matrix based on their level of influence (ranging from 0 to 3) and analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis method to determine direct and indirect relationships among them. The results indicate that the regeneration system of the historic fabric of Arak is dynamic and unstable, meaning that many variables simultaneously demonstrate both high influence and high dependence. Based on the dispersion analysis, the variables were classified into five categories: influential factors, bidirectional factors, regulatory factors, dependent factors, and independent factors. Among the variables, "integrated management of the historic fabric," "government facilitation," "enactment of specific regeneration laws," and "establishment of legal and regulatory instruments" exhibited the highest levels of direct and indirect influence and were identified as the backbone of the regeneration system. In contrast, variables such as infrastructure quality, transportation development, and sustainable employment were found to be highly dependent on other factors. A significant number of variables were categorized as bidirectional factors, including heritage conservation and restoration, adaptive reuse of buildings, functional diversity, citizen participation, and public–private investment. These variables are influenced by managerial and legal structures while also acting as strategic drivers that shape the overall system. Out of the 44 variables analyzed, 29 were identified as key factors affecting the physical regeneration of the historic fabric. Overall, the findings demonstrate that successful regeneration of historic urban areas depends on the complex interaction of managerial, legal, social, cultural, and economic dimensions. Solely focusing on physical interventions is insufficient. The relative instability of the system further suggests that changes in key drivers may produce widespread systemic impacts. Therefore, adopting a comprehensive, systemic, and future-oriented planning approach is essential to balance heritage preservation with contemporary urban functionality and long-term sustainability. Conclusion The complexity of urban challenges and the rapid advancement of technology have made urban management and planning increasingly difficult. The findings of this study indicate that, among 44 factors influencing the physical regeneration of the historic fabric of Arak, 29 key factors were identified as the main drivers. The most influential of these include integrated management of the historic fabric, government facilitation, and the enactment of specific regeneration laws. Analysis of different dimensions revealed that the socio-cultural dimension, with eight key drivers, holds the greatest importance, followed by the managerial, economic, political, physical, and environmental dimensions, respectively. These results align with previous studies, highlighting the importance of stakeholder participation, local community education, social security, and modernization of functions in sustainable regeneration. Overall, successful regeneration of historic urban fabric requires a systematic, foresight-driven, and multidimensional approach, with the identified drivers forming the backbone of this process. Coordinated management of these factors is essential for achieving sustainable regeneration of Arak's historic districts. پیچیدگی و چندبعدی بودن مشکلات و مسائل شهری همراه با رشد سریع فناوری و جهانی شدن الگوهای تولید، فزونی یافته و عدم ثبات شرایط و احتمال وقوع آینده‌های گوناگون سبب دشواری تصمیم‌گیری و برنامه‌ریزی در خصوص مسائل شهری شده است. در چنین شرایطی بازآفرینی شهری پایدار با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند راهکاری برای مشکلات بافت‌های ناکارآمد شهری و به طور خاص بافت‌های تاریخی باشد؛ لذا بایستی هرگونه مسائل و موضوعات در ارتباط با بازآفرینی بافت‌های ناکارآمد شهری به صورت نگاه چندبعدی و ترکیبی از عوامل مختلف مورد سنجش قرار بگیرد. بدین منظور در پژوهش حاضر سعی بر آن است که پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر در راستای باز‌آفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر اراک شناسایی و تحلیل شوند. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت بر اساس روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی صورت گرفته است. جهت جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از روش آمیخته مبتنی بر مصاحبه و تکنیک دلفی و همچنین روش اسنادی و بررسی میدانی بهره گرفته شده است. جامعه آماری 25 نفر از کارشناسان خبره شهری بر اساس نمونه‌گیری گلوله‌برفی می‌باشد که با روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل ساختاری در نرم‌افزار MICMAC پردازش‌شده است. این مقاله با استفاده از روش‌های دلفی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک به شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی پرداخته است. نتیجه به دست آمده بعد از وارد کردن امتیازات به نرم‌افزار میک‌مک مشخص گردید که 29 عامل به عنوان عوامل اصلی و پیشران در توسعه باز‌آفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر اراک شناخته شدند که در آن عواملی مانند مدیریت یکپارچه بافت تاریخی، تسهیل‌گری دولت و وضع قوانین خاص بازآفرینی به طور مشترک، در رتبه‌های اول و دوم تأثیرگذاری قرار دارند و جزو پیشران‌های کلیدی بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهر اراک محسوب می‌شوند.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_737038_edd0617baba0c67d104990e6ad702351.pdf

انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Communication Corridors and Geopolitics of Peace: A Case Study of Iran-Turkey Relations کریدورهای ارتباطی و ژئوپلیتیک صلح: مطالعه موردی روابط ایران و ترکیه 107 125 737037 10.22034/jiga.2026.2070149.1438 FA سمیرا نوبخت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد محسن جان پرور عضو هیأت علمی دانشگاه مشهد Journal Article 2025 11 22 Extended Abstract Introduction Peace, traditionally understood as the absence of war, has evolved into a broader concept encompassing justice, human rights, and societal harmony, as articulated by Johan Galtung’s framework of negative, positive, structural, and cultural peace. In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, peace extends beyond non-violence to foster cooperation and mutual prosperity. Geopolitics, historically tied to power struggles, has shifted toward facilitating peace and development, with communication corridors emerging as critical tools for spatial integration and conflict reduction. These corridors, encompassing road, rail, air, and energy routes, transcend mere transportation, acting as synergistic infrastructures that enhance economic interdependence, cultural exchange, and diplomatic stability. Iran and Turkey, as key regional powers in West Asia with a 500-km shared border and rich historical ties, offer a significant case for studying how such corridors can transform competitive dynamics into cooperative frameworks. Despite political differences, their shared infrastructure projects, like the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul (ITI) corridor and the Tabriz-Ankara gas pipeline, underscore their potential to foster sustainable peace. This study explores how these corridors contribute to positive peace by reducing geopolitical tensions and promoting regional stability. Methodology This research employs a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach, utilizing documentary and historical content analysis. Data were collected from secondary sources, including academic articles, books, theses, official reports, and news agencies, covering 2000–2024 for contemporary insights and credible historical records for earlier periods. Selection criteria prioritized source credibility, recency, and relevance to communication corridors, geopolitics of peace, and Iran-Turkey relations. Analytical tools included qualitative coding and thematic analysis to identify patterns (e.g., economic interdependence, cultural exchange, security cooperation), comparative historical analysis to trace developments from the Safavid-Ottoman era to the present, and descriptive statistical analysis for metrics like trade volumes and border crossings. The theoretical framework draws on Galtung’s positive peace, economic diplomacy, and geopolitics of connectivity. Limitations include restricted access to recent statistical data due to sanctions, scarcity of precise historical records, reliance on secondary sources, and the absence of fieldwork. Results and Discussion The findings, structured around operational indicators of peace, highlight the multifaceted role of communication corridors in Iran-Turkey relations: v Economic Interdependence: The Tabriz-Ankara gas pipeline (operational since 2001) exports 30 million cubic meters of gas daily, meeting significant Turkish energy needs. The ITI corridor, revitalized in 2021, boosted bilateral trade to over $12 billion in 2023, connecting Iran to European markets. The 24/7 operation of the Razi-Kapikoy border since 2023 increased passenger and agricultural export traffic by 200%. v Cultural Exchange: Annual cross-border tourism via Razi-Kapikoy and Bazargan-Gurbulak, alongside festivals (e.g., Iranian film festivals in Ankara since 2015) and the Mevlana student exchange program (since 2011), fosters mutual understanding. v Diplomatic Cooperation: Over 30 high-level meetings between 2010 and 2024, agreements on customs and rail transport (2016, 2018), and joint efforts in OIC and ECO forums enhance institutional dialogue. The Astana talks (2017–2018) facilitated Syria’s de-escalation zones. v Security Cooperation: Turkey’s 70-km border wall (2017–2024) and joint border patrols reduce smuggling and PKK activities, ensuring secure transit routes. v Regional Convergence: Collaboration in crises like Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh (2020), and Iraq (anti-ISIS efforts, 2014–2017) leverages corridors for humanitarian aid, transforming competition into cooperation. v Transit Corridors: The Tehran-Tabriz-Van rail, ITI, and North-South Corridor (INSTC) connect the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea, handling over 20 million tons of regional trade in 2023, reinforcing spatial-economic synergies. Conclusion Communication corridors serve as geopolitical tools fostering positive peace by creating spatial synergies that integrate diverse regions. In Iran-Turkey relations, these corridors reduce trade costs, enhance cultural ties, and build trust, aligning with Galtung’s positive peace framework. Historical analysis underscores their role since Safavid-Ottoman times, evolving into modern connectors like the INSTC and ITI, which mitigate tensions. However, challenges such as sanctions, regional complexities, and security threats (e.g., PKK activities) limit their potential. Comparative studies, like India-Bangladesh corridors, confirm that transit infrastructures drive long-term stability. To advance peace, Iran and Turkey should invest in joint infrastructure, digital customs, and cultural programs. In conclusion, these corridors transform competitive dynamics into cooperative frameworks, fostering sustainable regional stability. تحولات صورت گرفته در طی دهه‌های اخیر پیوند و همبستگی بین فضاهای جغرافیایی را تا حد زیادی گسترش داده است. به نحوی که فضاهای جغرافیایی بدون کنش و تعامل با یکدیگر زمینه پایداری خود را نمی‌توانند حفظ کنند و دچار چالش و مشکل می‌شوند. از جمله حلقه‌های اصلی این پیوند بین فضاهای جغرافیایی از جمله کشورها، کریدورهای ارتباطی در شکل‌ها و انواع مختلف خود هستند. کریدورهای ارتباطی در این جهان به هم پیوسته زمان و مکان را به صورت‌های مختلف به هم پیوند داده اند و فشرده کرده اند. از جمله خروجی‌های این کریدورها می‌توان به افزایش وابستگی کشورها به یکدیگر اشاره کرد که با خود صلح و امنیت را بین آنها تقویت کرده و افزایش می‌دهد. در این میان، کریدورهای ارتباطی به‌عنوان شریان‌های حیاتی، نقش کلیدی در تقویت روابط اقتصادی، فرهنگی و سیاسی بین ایران و ترکیه ایفا می‌کنند. این پژوهش با روش ترکیبی کیفی- کمی و رویکرد تحلیل محتوای اسنادی و تاریخی، تأثیر زیرساخت‌های جاده‌ای، ریلی و هوایی را بر توسعه صلح پایدار بین ایران و ترکیه بررسی می‌کند. ابزارهای تحلیل شامل کدگذاری کیفی، تحلیل مضمون، تحلیل تاریخی تطبیقی و تحلیل کمی ساده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که پروژه‌های مشترک مانند کریدور اسلام‌آباد– تهران– استانبول و خط لوله گاز تبریز– آنکارا، با افزایش تجارت و تبادلات فرهنگی، به کاهش تنش‌های سیاسی و اعتمادسازی متقابل کمک می‌کنند. این مطالعه راهکارهایی مانند توسعه زیرساخت‌های ریلی، تقویت همکاری‌های گمرکی دیجیتال و مدیریت مشترک امنیتی پیشنهاد می‌دهد تا صلح مثبت و ثبات منطقه‌ای تقویت شود. محدودیت‌های پژوهش شامل دسترسی محدود به داده‌های آماری جدید، کمبود منابع تاریخی دقیق، پیچیدگی‌های سیاسی و فقدان داده‌های میدانی است.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_737037_0ef17ad17b6ee8ec12b4b16e7a77ceea.pdf

انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Identifying key factors affecting urban tourism development (case study of Arak metropolis) شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر توسعه گردشگری شهری (نمونه موردی کلانشهر اراک) 127 157 737195 10.22034/jiga.2026.2049015.1371 FA مسعود صفایی پور استاد جغرافیای و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز 0000-0003-4330-7865 علی میرزایی دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران 0000-0002-8179-5196 Journal Article 2025 01 08 Extended Abstract Introduction Urban tourism has emerged as one of the major drivers of sustainable urban development, playing a significant role in economic growth, job creation, social interaction, and enhancing the competitiveness of cities. Despite Iran's rich historical, cultural, and natural resources, many cities, including the metropolis of Arak, have not yet achieved a desirable position within the country's urban tourism system. Furthermore, previous studies have predominantly focused on the economic dimensions of tourism while paying limited attention to the comprehensive range of factors influencing urban tourism development. The novelty of this study lies in its multidimensional approach, which examines urban tourism development through six interrelated dimensions: social, economic, environmental, institutional–managerial, physical, and technological. Accordingly, this study aims to identify and prioritize the key drivers affecting the development of urban tourism in the metropolis of Arak by applying a futures studies approach and Structural Analysis (MICMAC), with the ultimate goal of providing a comprehensive framework for strategic planning and policymaking and promoting the effective utilization of the city's tourism potential. Methodology This study is applied-developmental in terms of its objective and adopts a descriptive–analytical research design based on a futures studies approach, integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods. In the first stage, a systematic and structured review of the relevant literature was conducted using documentary and library-based sources to identify the factors influencing urban tourism development. Based on the theoretical foundations and the identified indicators and variables, six analytical dimensions—social, economic, environmental, institutional–managerial, physical, and technological—were extracted. In the second stage, the Cross-Impact Analysis technique (Structural Analysis) was employed to evaluate the mutual influences among the identified variables. The resulting data were analyzed using MICMAC software, and finally, the key driving forces of urban tourism development were identified based on their levels of direct influence and dependence. Results and Discussion The findings of the MICMAC structural analysis revealed that the urban tourism system of Arak is characterized by a high level of dynamism and interdependence, indicating a relatively unstable system. The results identified urban development based on healthy city principles and environmental regulations, effective management by local government and municipalities, strengthening the city's visual identity and appropriate urban landscape design, improving urban aesthetics and architectural quality, and the regeneration of deteriorated urban areas as the most influential factors in both direct and indirect analyses of urban tourism development. In addition, variables such as the social capacity of the local community, the balanced distribution of tourism facilities and services, the enhancement of transportation infrastructure, participatory tourism planning, and tourism budgeting were recognized as major driving forces. The consistency of the highest-ranked variables across both direct and indirect influence analyses confirms the structural stability and strategic importance of these factors for the future development of urban tourism in Arak. Overall, the findings suggest that the sustainable development of urban tourism in Arak depends not merely on economic factors but requires an integrated approach that emphasizes environmental, managerial, physical, and social dimensions. Conclusion The findings of this study indicate that the development of urban tourism in Arak depends less on purely economic factors and more on improving the quality of the urban environment, enhancing the effectiveness of local governance, strengthening urban identity, and upgrading the physical quality of tourism spaces. The identified key drivers particularly urban development based on healthy city principles, effective local government management, strengthening the city's visual identity, the regeneration of deteriorated urban areas, and the enhancement of urban landscape quality play a decisive role in shaping the future of urban tourism in the city. The main novelty of this research lies in the simultaneous identification and prioritization of the key drivers of urban tourism development across six dimensions social, economic, environmental, institutional–managerial, physical, and technological using a futures studies approach and MICMAC structural analysis. Based on these findings, it is recommended that policymakers prioritize improving the urban environment, strengthening integrated tourism governance, regenerating urban spaces, developing tourism infrastructure, and allocating financial resources strategically to promote the sustainable development of urban tourism and enhance the competitiveness of the metropolis of Arak. امروزه نگاه به آینده از پیش‌بینی صرف فراتر رفته و بر ساختن آینده مطلوب از طریق شناخت عوامل اثرگذار و برنامه‌ریزی هدفمند تأکید دارد. در این راستا، کلانشهر اراک با وجود برخورداری از ظرفیت‌های تاریخی، طبیعی و فرهنگی، هنوز نتوانسته جایگاه شایسته‌ای در نظام گردشگری شهری کشور کسب کند. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری شهری اراک انجام شده است. این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش، توصیفی–تحلیلی است. داده‌های مورد نیاز از طریق مطالعات اسنادی و پیمایش میدانی گردآوری شد. در گام نخست، با بهره‌گیری از روش مرور نظام‌مند، ۳۲ متغیر اثرگذار بر توسعه گردشگری شهری در ابعاد اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست‌محیطی، نهادی–مدیریتی، کالبدی و فناوری شناسایی گردید. سپس با استفاده از روش تحلیل ساختاری و تکنیک تأثیرات متقابل، روابط میان متغیرها ارزیابی و در نرم‌افزار MICMAC تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که سیستم گردشگری شهری اراک در وضعیت ناپایدار قرار دارد و از میان متغیرهای بررسی‌شده، 32 عامل و متغیر رتبه بندی شدند. بر اساس نتایج، متغیرهای «توسعه شهری بر اساس موازین شهر سالم و رعایت ضوابط زیست‌محیطی»، «اقدامات و مدیریت مؤثر دولت محلی و شهرداری‌ها در سطوح ملی و بین‌المللی»، «هویت‌بخشی به سیمای شهر و طراحی مناسب در مکان‌های طبیعی»، «زیبایی منظر و سبک معماری» و «ساماندهی و بهسازی بافت‌های فرسوده» بیشترین تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم را بر توسعه گردشگری شهری اراک دارند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که عوامل زیست‌محیطی، مدیریتی و کالبدی مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های توسعه گردشگری این شهر محسوب می‌شوند. نوآوری پژوهش در تمرکز بر شهر صنعتی اراک و ارائه چارچوبی جامع برای شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌های توسعه گردشگری شهری با بهره‌گیری از تحلیل ساختاری است که می‌تواند مبنایی برای سیاست‌گذاری و برنامه‌ریزی آینده‌نگر در این حوزه باشد.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_737195_2a8522039dbc0a9c49dfa37ca38fa4bb.pdf

انجمن جغرافیایی ایران جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران) 2783-3739 24 88 2026 05 22 Investigating ET and Cp climatic comfort indices based on quantile regression using temperature, humidity, and wind speed (A case study of Babolsar) ارزیابی شاخص‌های آسایش اقلیمی ET و Cp بر اساس رگرسیون چندک با استفاده از دما، رطوبت و سرعت باد (مطالعه موردی بابلسر) 159 165 737196 10.22034/jiga.2026.2076099.1457 FA صدیقه لطفی گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران 0000-0001-6467-0642 صدیقه برار خانپور احمدی ساری ، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی 0009-0006-5968-9115 Journal Article 2025 11 19 Extended Abstract Introduction Climate change, driven by anthropogenic activities and amplified by urban morphology, is profoundly impacting human life. The increase in global temperatures, coupled with the urban heat island effect, is leading to the emergence of more frequent and intense heat-related risks. Bioclimatic indices, based on meteorological variables like temperature, humidity, and wind, are essential for evaluating thermal stress in urban environments and guiding sustainable management strategies. In the context of accelerating climate change, the study of future bioclimatic comfort under various emission scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) has become increasingly critical. While numerous studies have examined historical and future urban climatic comfort, many have focused on mean trends in time series data. However, climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, analyzing the impact of extreme high and low values of climatic variables on comfort indices is of paramount importance. Unlike traditional regression methods, quantile regression offers a powerful tool to investigate patterns of change across the entire distribution of a dataset—particularly the extremes. This approach can reveal how different quantiles (e.g., low, medium, and high) of independent climatic variables influence the dependent comfort index, providing crucial insights into the effects of severe weather (both hot and cold). Mazandaran Province, is a major tourist destination, renowned for its coastal and natural attractions. Babolsar, with the longest coastline in northern Iran, is a prime location for coastal tourism. As global temperatures rise, studying thermal stress and climatic comfort in these tourism-dependent areas becomes essential. Despite numerous studies on climate change and thermal comfort indices, a comprehensive, localized analysis of future thermal stress and comfort, especially for Iran's northern coastal regions, remains scarce. This study aims to fill this gap by applying multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and quantile regression to analyze changes in bioclimatic comfort indices in Babolsar for both historical and future periods, offering an innovative and practical approach for adaptation planning. Material and Methods The study focuses on Babolsar (36°43'N, 52°39'30"E), a coastal city on the southern Caspian Sea with a humid temperate climate, average annual temperature of 17.8°C, and about 939 mm of precipitation. Two primary datasets were employed: (1) historical daily meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind speed) from the Babolsar synoptic station (1987–2014), and (2) future climate projections (2020–2099) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three SSP scenarios—optimistic (SSP1-2.6), moderate (SSP2-4.5), and pessimistic (SSP5-8.5). Among eight CMIP6 models evaluated for accuracy in Iran, the GFDL-ESM4 model was selected for its complete data, relatively high accuracy (R²=0.7), and appropriate resolution. Bias correction and downscaling to the station level were performed using bilinear interpolation in R. Two comfort indices were calculated: (a) Effective Temperature (ET), which integrates temperature and humidity (ET = T - 0.4(T - 10)(1 - RH/100)), with categories from "Very Hot" to "Very Cold"; and (b) Baker's Bioclimatic Index (Cp), designed for tourist comfort (Cp = (0.26 + 0.34V^0.632)(36.5 - T), where V is wind speed), with categories from "Hot, Unpleasant" to "Unbearable, Very Cold". The core analytical method was quantile regression, which estimates conditional quantiles (e.g., 5th, 50th, 95th percentiles) rather than just the conditional mean. This allows detection of significant trends across the full distribution (0.01 to 0.99 quantiles) for both historical and future periods. Results and Discussion The resuts revealed between 1987 and 2014, mean daily temperatures rose significantly across all quantiles, with the most pronounced warming (0.048°C/year) occurring on the coldest days. Concurrently, relative humidity declined—especially at lower quantiles—while wind speeds increased. The ET index refelected this warming trend, again strongest for cooler days, suggesting a reduction in cold extremes. Interestingly, Baker’s Index showed a historical increase in lower and medium quantiles, indicating a trend toward cooler days, which appeared beneficial. Future projections, however, diverge sharply by emissions scenario. Under the optimistic SSP1-2.6, temperatures continue rising in the near future (2021–2060) but at a slower rate, with no significant trend expected by 2061–2100. In contrast, the moderate SSP2-4.5 and especially the pessimistic SSP5-8.5 project intensified warming, particularly for lower quantiles. Humidity projections are mixed under optimistic and moderate scenarios (with some high-quantile increases), but the pessimistic scenario foresees significant decreases, especially for medium and high quantiles. Wind speed trends are negligible under SSP1-2.6, slightly negative under SSP2-4.5, and complex under SSP5-8.5 (decreasing near-term, increasing far-term but with weaker slopes than historically). For the ET index, SSP1-2.6 shows near-term warming but far-term stabilization. Under SSP2-4.5 and particularly SSP5-8.5, strong increasing trends emerge across all quantiles, with far-future slopes reaching up to 0.56°C/year—signaling a dramatic rise in hot days. Starkly, Baker’s Index—historically trending toward cooler days—reverses under all future scenarios, showing decreasing trends across most quantiles, indicating a shift toward warmer conditions. This decline intensifies under SSP5-8.5 (slopes up to -0.062), implying a notable reduction in cool and cold days. Quantile regression revealed that ordinary least squares (OLS) mean trends often misrepresented median or extreme trends, underscoring the insufficiency of mean-only analyses. Under SSP5-8.5, upper ET quantiles intensify fastest near-term (0.3/year), while lower quantiles also rise dramatically far-term (0.07/year), eroding cooler days. For the comfort parameter (Cp), negative slopes under SSP5-8.5 are strongest for upper quantiles far-term, signaling a near-total loss of very cool days. Conclusion This study investigated historical and future climatic comfort using meteorological data and advanced statistical methods. Two primary datasets were utilized: historical daily weather records (temperature, humidity, wind speed) from 1987-2014 obtained from the local synoptic station, and future climate projections for 2020-2099 derived from the CMIP6 database. Among eight assessed models, the GFDL-ESM4 was selected for its accuracy (R²=0.7) and data completeness. Bias correction and downscaling were performed using bilinear interpolation in R. To evaluate human comfort, two bioclimatic indices were calculated. The Effective Temperature (ET) integrates temperature and humidity to classify comfort from "Very Hot" to "Very Cold." Baker's Bioclimatic Index (Cp) assesses tourist comfort by incorporating wind speed and temperature, with categories ranging from "Hot, Unpleasant" to "Unbearable, Very Cold." These indices were applied to both historical and future data under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): a low-emissions (SSP1-2.6), moderate (SSP2-4.5), and high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The core analytical method was quantile regression, which estimates relationships across different percentiles (e.g., 5th, 50th, 95th) of the dependent variable distribution. This approach is superior to ordinary least squares for climate studies because it captures changes in extreme values—critical for assessing climate impacts. The analysis identified significant trends across quantiles (0.01 to 0.99) for climatic variables and comfort indices over both historical and future periods, enabling a comprehensive understanding of how both average conditions and extremes may shift under different emission pathways. تغییر اقلیم به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌ها، تأثیر قابل توجهی بر شرایط آسایش اقلیمی دارد. مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر شاخص‌های آسایش اقلیمی در ایستگاه سینوپتیک بابلسر انجام شد. در این پژوهش، روند 28 ساله (2014-1987) و آینده تا سال 2100 برای شاخص‌های دمای مؤثر (ET) و شاخص زیست‌اقلیمی بیکر (Cp) با استفاده از داده‌های دما، رطوبت نسبی و سرعت باد و بهره‌گیری از روش رگرسیون چندک تحلیل گردید. برای ارزیابی آینده، سه سناریوی اقلیمی خوش‌بینانه، میانه و بدبینانه (به ترتیب SSP126، SSP245 و SSP585) مورد استفاده قرار گرفتند تا تغییرات احتمالی در مقادیر مختلف شاخص‌ها و طبقه‌بندی ماهانه آسایش اقلیمی منطقه تعیین شود. نتایج نشان داد که در بیشتر سناریوها، افزایش دمای هوا و کاهش رطوبت نسبی تا پایان قرن محتمل است، در حالی‌که تنها در سناریوی خوش‌بینانه ثبات دما و افزایش نسبی رطوبت مشاهده می‌شود. شاخص ET در دوره تاریخی روند افزایشی داشته و گرم‌تر شدن روزهای سرد را نشان می‌دهد. در آینده نیز تحت سناریوی خوش‌بینانه، افزایش روزهای گرم با شدت کمتر تداوم دارد، اما در سناریوهای متوسط و بدبینانه، افزایش چشمگیر دما و کاهش روزهای سرد موجب تشدید تنش حرارتی، به‌ویژه در ماه‌های گرم سال می‌شود. شاخص Cp که در گذشته گرایش به خنکی را نشان می‌داد، در آینده افزایش گرما و گرمازدگی را منعکس می‌کند. نتایج کلی بیانگر افزایش ناراحتی اقلیمی و کاهش پایداری شرایط زیست‌اقلیمی در منطقه ساحلی شهر بابلسر است. بر این اساس، اتخاذ راهکارهای هوشمندانه مدیریت اقلیم برای کاهش اثرات منفی و افزایش تاب‌آوری منطقه ضروری به‌نظر می‌رسد.

https://mag.iga.ir/article_737196_879ce39244157ac0ce54eb2fc567eb27.pdf