نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی, گروه شهرسازی, ایران
2 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی, گروه شهرسازی, ایران.
3 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد زنجان, گروه شهرسازی, ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In the last few decades, the traditional model of preparing comprehensive plans with an approach based on purely rational planning has been criticized. Criticism and evaluation of this method of study was first in the countries that developed the comprehensive plan and gradually transferred to other countries that prepared the plan. The purpose of this article is to specify the principles of the foresight approach in the field of planning and its application in the process of developing urban development plans in order to quickly respond to the high risk of planning and the complexities of urban systems. Due to the nature of this research, in which it takes into account the complexities, uncertainties and changes of the environment and does not follow the predetermined fixed rules. The dominant interpretive paradigm and research method is qualitative research. Data collection techniques are through study, observation and semi-structured interview and open questionnaire, and the method of data analysis is done in the form of Delphi technique. During the first and second stages of this technique, and by obtaining opinions from elites and experts in the field of planning and future research, the eleven principles of the foresight approach in the field of urban planning were specified and prioritized, and then the results of the third stage of the Delphi technique, including the amount of Consideration of the mentioned principles is provided in urban development plans. The results indicate that the amount of consideration of these principles in the formulation of urban development plans is 20% on average, which shows the lack of attention to these principles in the formulation of urban development plans. Finally, the proposed process of developing urban development plans based on the foresight approach includes seven main stages of understanding, collecting information, analyzing information, screening and interpreting information, foresight, outputs (evaluation and decision), implementation and implementation. became. This process can be complementary to strategic planning and in environments where planning is highly dynamic, it can be adapted to current developments.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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