Authors
1
Tehran University, Agriculture and Natural Resources Campus, Department of Irrigation and Development Engineering, Iran
2
Tehran University, Agriculture and Natural Resources Campus, Department of Irrigation and Development Engineering, Iran.
3
Institute of Geophysics, Department of Space Physics, Iran
Abstract
In recent years, determining the uncertainty of hydrological models has received much attention in hydrological research. Although the hydrological model parameters are usually determined by calibration, there is considerable uncertainty in the model parameters. In this study, with the aim of calibrating and analyzing the uncertainty of the Alsis-Hbv coupled model in the Karkheh basin, the glue method has been used. Determining the main sources of uncertainty and identifying parameters, as well as estimating the amount of uncertainty in river flow simulation results, are other goals of this research. The findings show that parameters k2, fcap, maxbas, lp, b, degw and ttlim are the main sources of uncertainty of river flow and parameters k2, fcap, b, lp and perc are the most identifiable parameters. In general, the evaluation of the performance of the model for simulating the river flow in the Karkheh basin, especially in the calibration period, is good and acceptable, and most of the observed data of the river flow are within the 95% confidence interval, so the calculated probability distribution of the river flow can be It is used to predict the flow of the river.
Keywords
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