Geography

Geography

Capacity Measurement in the Face of Earthquake in Tabriz Watershed

Document Type : Article extracted From phd dissertation

Authors
Seyed jajaloddin Khoshkanabi 1
Ahmad Nohegar 2
MohamadJavad Amiri 3
1 Department of Environment planning, Aras International Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Disaster Engineering, Education and Environmental Systems, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran,
3 Department of Disaster Engineering, Education and Environmental Systems, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/iga.2024.2034264.1316
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Tabriz is located a short distance from the fault north of Tabriz, which is one of the areas with a very high relative risk in earthquake risk. The region of 2 municipalities of Tabriz, where many scientific and tourism centers are located, is at risk of earthquakes. In this study, according to the possibility of earthquake crisis, the level of urban resilience and the response capacity of the district 2 of Tabriz were evaluated against earthquakes.
 
Methodology
At first, the effective indicators in resilience were prepared by interview and nominal group method and Delphi technique and were categorized into 12 criteria. Next, the indices were weighted by ANP, the layers (indices) were superimposed with the SUM fuzzy. The neighborhoods of the region 2were clustered by SVM, in terms of resilience and the spatial pattern of the clusters was analyzed by Moran's autocorrelation model; The relationship between the indicators and the level of resilience was analyzed by the GWR model. Finally, SWAT technique and QSPM matrix were used to develop operational strategies for poor neighborhoods.
 
Result and discussion
The results showed that the indicators of access to urban open spaces, urban impermeability and quality are the most important in resilience with fuzzy membership degrees of 0.174, 0.137 and 0.137 respectively. Approximately 35% of the district 2 of Tabriz has weak resilience against earthquakes, but about 65% has moderate to almost adequate resilience. The weak neighborhoods are related to the north-western neighborhoods (Golbad, Halmeh, Qorkhaneh, Shahid Montazeri and Gol-Gasht) and the suitable neighborhoods are Tabriz University, Elahi Parast, Zafaranieh, Sari Zira, Abbas Mirza and Golshahr. Moran's model shows the confirmation of the urban resilience clustering model of the region against earthquakes. The coefficients of the GWR model indicate the validity and accuracy of the model for predicting the level of resilience. The results of the SWAT technique show that the studied factors are placed in the district 2 of Tabriz and in the fifth house (V) that the residents of the neighborhoods of district 2 of Tabriz in terms of being able to deal with the earthquake in the condition is medium to low. The strategies are also aggressive (SO) and its goal is to make maximum use of external opportunities with internal strengths and in this way maintain the external factors of the current conditions and grow and strengthen these conditions in the future.
 
Conclusion
The urban resilience evaluation framework and the preparation of spatial maps for resilience evaluation can be a practical guide to determine the strengths and weaknesses of a city against earthquakes. These results can help planners in spatial planning and urban environment. In addition, authorities can use the results to develop disaster risk reduction programs and policies. They can use the framework introduced in this study to identify areas of vulnerability that should be prioritized during resilience efforts.
 
Keywords
Resilience
Fuzzy Analysis
Earthquake
Strategy
Tabriz

Subjects

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Geography
Volume 22, Issue 81
Summer2024, pp.1- 195.
Summer 2024
Pages 153-174