عنوان مقاله [English]
An this study, the temperature and precipitation monthly averages of two synoptic stations of Bandar-Abbas and Minab were investigated during two periods (2044-20-2015 and 2074-2074) based on the general atmospheric circulation model outputs (CanESM2) and three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Then, the trend of these two parameters was evaluated using Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Also, the simulated and observational data were evaluated using three coefficients including NS, R2, RMSE. The investigation of these coefficients showed high ability of SDSM model for modeling of precipitation and temperature parameters at both stations. According to the results, annual precipitation in RCP2.6 scenario of Bandar-Abbas synoptic station and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of Minab station will decrease and the most reduction of rainfall will be related to Minab synoptic station. The average amount of temperature for the future in RCP8.5 emission scenario is more than other emission scenarios. Generally, these results indicated that temperature values will increase at the beginning of the 21st century in the Minab Plain, and the rainfall will increase just in RCP2.6 scenarios. While in the middle of the 20th century (2074-2045) at Minab and Bandar-Abbas synoptic stations, the temperature reduction is observed only in the RCP2.6 scenarios on an annual scale. Therefore, considering the reduction of rainfall and increasing of temperature and also their role in evapotranspiration enhancement, planners and authorities are recommended to seek solutions for proper management of water resources and modification of utilization methods in these areas, especially in the agricultural section and also use solutions to adapt to the new weather conditions in these regions.
1.انصاری، مریم؛ توری، غلامرضا؛ فتوحی، صمد (1395). روند تغییرات دما، بارش و دبی با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتری من-کندال (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز رودخانه کاجو استان سیستان و بلوچستان). پژوهش نامه مدیریت حوزه آبخیز دوره 7، شماره 3، صفحات 158-152