عنوان مقاله [English]
The current research aims to explain the optimal scenario of regional integrated development and the optimal strategies for its realization in Minodasht city. The first step in this research is to identify the effective factors in the integrated development of a region with an emphasis on urban-rural links in Minodasht city, in this direction, Delphi method and cross-effects matrix (MikMak software) were used. In this way, 28 factors were identified as key driving factors. The second step is to explain believable and probable futures and create a scenario. At this stage, first the believable futures were explained based on the key driving factors, and from these futures, possible futures were determined, and then the probability of realization of each of the above believable situations in the form of a five-choice Likert scale (from many low to very high) was measured. Based on this, the situations whose score was higher than the average limit (x=3) were known as possible situations or in other words possible futures, which were the basis of mapping the desired scenario. Based on the findings of this section, the focus of the scenario is the development of tourism activities. SWAT model and hierarchical analysis model were used to select the best strategies. The findings of this section also show that aggressive strategies are the most optimal strategies. Also, the hierarchical analysis model showed that the superior strategy among these aggressive strategies is presented, based on the combination and development of tourism types with potential in the area in the form of a tourism package and the introduction and presentation of attractions, facilities, programs through the capacities It is virtual space.