نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Climate change, as one of the most critical challenges, significantly affects climatic comfort conditions in urban areas. This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on climatic comfort indices at the Babolsar synoptic station. In this research, the 28-year trend (1987–2014) and future projections up to the year 2100 were analyzed for the Effective Temperature (ET) and Baker’s Bioclimatic Index (Cp) using temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data, employing quantile regression methods. To assess future conditions, three climate scenarios—optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively)—were utilized to determine potential changes in index values and the monthly classification of climatic comfort in the region. The results indicated that under most scenarios, an increase in air temperature and a decrease in relative humidity are likely by the end of the century, whereas only the optimistic scenario shows temperature stability and a relative increase in humidity. The ET index exhibited an upward trend during the historical period, indicating warming of cold days. Under the optimistic scenario, the increase in hot days continues but with lesser intensity; however, under the intermediate and pessimistic scenarios, a significant rise in temperature and a reduction in cold days exacerbate thermal stress, particularly during the warm months. The Cp index, which previously indicated a tendency toward coolness, reflects increasing heat and heat stress in the future. Overall, the findings suggest growing climatic discomfort and declining stability of bioclimatic conditions in the coastal area of Babolsar. Accordingly, adopting smart climate management strategies appears essential to mitigate negative impacts and enhance the region's resilience.
کلیدواژهها English