جغرافیا  (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران)

جغرافیا (نشریۀ انجمن جغرافیایی ایران)

تحلیل ویژگی‌های ابرناکی مرتبط با رخدادهای بارش سنگین در شمال غرب ایران با استفاده از داده‌های بازکاوی ERA5

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استاد آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.
2 دانش آموخته دکترای آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
10.22034/jiga.2026.2084974.1481
چکیده
این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل ویژگی ‌های ابرناکی مرتبط با رخداد های بارش سنگین در شمال غرب ایران انجام شد. برای این منظور، داده‌ های روزانه بارش از ۱۹ ایستگاه همدیدی واقع در منطقه مطالعه طی دوره ۲۰ ساله (۲۰۰۰–۲۰۱۹) به کار گرفته شد. به ‌منظور ارزیابی ویژگی‌های ابرناکی، داده‌های بازتحلیل ERA5 دریافت و برای تحلیل رخدادهای بارش سنگین، روزهایی که معیارهای شدت (صدک ۹۹ بارش) و گستردگی مکانی (پوشش حداقل ۳۰ درصد ایستگاه‌ها) را برآورده می‌کردند، شناسایی شدند. برای هر رخداد شناسایی ‌شده، سه شاخص ابرناکی شامل شدت پوشش ابر (TCC)، گستردگی فضایی ابر بر اساس مساحت منطقه با (TCC ≥ 0.7) و همچنین الگوی فضایی مرکز جرم پوشش ابر محاسبه شد. نتایج اعتبار سنجی ERA5 با استفاده از داده‌های MERRA-2 نشان داد که این پایگاه عملکرد مناسبی در بازنمایی ویژگی‌ های ابرناکی مرتبط با رخدادهای بارش سنگین دارد. بر اساس تحلیل‌ها، در ۵۰ درصد از رخدادهای بارش سنگین، مرکز جرم الگوی فضایی ابرها در جنوب شرق ایستگاه تبریز قرار داشت و در همان نسبت، گستردگی فضایی ابر (TCC ≥ 0.7) برابر با ۱ و پوشش ابری کامل (۱۰۰ درصد) ثبت شد. بیشینه پوشش مکانی ابر در میان ۱۶ رخداد بارش سنگین مربوط به رخداد ۰۳/۰۲/۲۰۰۶ بود، در حالی‌ که کمینه گستردگی فضایی ابر برابر با 43/0 در رخداد ۳۰/۰۳/۲۰۱۸ مشاهده شد. تحلیل رخدادمحور ابرناکی می‌تواند درک دقیق‌تری از نقش ساختار فضایی سامانه‌های ابری در شکل‌گیری بارش‌های سنگین منطقه فراهم کند. هم‌زمانی بیشینه گستردگی ابرناکی با رخداد های بارش سنگین شدید، بیانگر اهمیت پوشش ابری پیوسته در تشدید بارش‌هاست.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Cloudiness Characteristics Associated with Heavy Precipitation Events in Northwest Iran Using Era5 Reanalysis Data

نویسندگان English

Bromand Salahi 1
Ali Shahi 2
1 Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Ph. D of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
چکیده English

Extended Abstract
Introduction
Clouds are fundamental components of the Earth's climate system, playing a critical role in precipitation distribution, radiative energy balance, and the hydrological cycle. The physical and microphysical properties of clouds—including cloud-top height, temperature, optical thickness, and cloud fraction—significantly influence precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. This study aims to analyze cloudiness characteristics associated with Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) in Northwest Iran. Examining the spatiotemporal variations of clouds and their relationship with extreme precipitation provides valuable insights for weather forecasting, water-resource management, and climate-change impact assessment. The analysis of observational and reanalysis data serves as a robust tool for extracting cloudiness patterns and understanding their linkage to precipitation extremes. Identifying the spatial extent and persistence of cloud cover during HPEs also improves the interpretation of precipitation-generating systems and supports regional early-warning, disaster-risk management, and adaptation planning efforts.

Methodology
The study area covers Northwest Iran, encompassing the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and Ardabil (35°–40° N, 43°–49° E). Daily precipitation data from 19 synoptic stations were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for the period 2000–2019. Total Cloud Cover (TCC) reanalysis data were extracted from the ERA5 dataset. Hourly Total Cloud Cover data for the identified HPE days were retrieved and converted into daily averages. For validation purposes, three selected events were compared against the MERRA-2 dataset. Heavy Precipitation Events were identified based on a combined criterion of intensity (99th percentile and above) and spatial extent (at least 30% of stations and a minimum of five stations recording >= 20.4 mm). The spatial contribution of stations to these events was mapped using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method in a GIS environment. Cloudiness characteristics, including intensity, spatial extent, and Total Cloud Cover patterns for 16 Heavy Precipitation Events, were analyzed using ERA5. For each event, the daily mean Total Cloud Cover, the percentage of area with TCC >= 0.7, and the center of mass of cloud cover were calculated. In addition, spatial maps were produced to illustrate the distribution and extent of cloud cover during each event across the study region. The performance of ERA5 for three selected events was evaluated using Willmott’s Index of Agreement (d), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Bias.

Results and Discussion
A total of 16 Heavy Precipitation Events were identified during the study period, forming the basis for analyzing cloudiness characteristics and evaluating reanalysis-data performance. The analysis detailed the spatial coverage of Heavy Precipitation Events, the stations recording maximum precipitation, and the peak precipitation values for each event. Sardasht station recorded the maximum precipitation in 10 out of 16 events (62.5%), highlighting it as a hotspot for precipitation extremes in the region. The highest recorded precipitation reached 185 mm on 3 February 2006 at this station. Validation of ERA5 against MERRA-2 using Willmott’s d, RMSE, and Bias demonstrated that ERA5 performs reliably in representing cloudiness features associated with Heavy Precipitation Events in Northwest Iran. Pixel-based Total Cloud Cover patterns for the 16 events revealed that, although cloud intensity and extent varied across events, high Total Cloud Cover values were predominantly concentrated in the southwestern half of the region, aligning with areas of high station participation. This spatial correspondence indicates a close association between extensive cloud cover and the occurrence of widespread heavy precipitation across the monitoring network. The gradient from minimum to maximum Total Cloud Cover values indicates variations in cloud-system intensity; more intense events were associated with larger spatial clusters of high Total Cloud Cover. This recurring pattern suggests that the spatial structure of cloud cover during Heavy Precipitation Events in this region follows a relatively stable configuration.

Conclusion
The maximum spatial extent of Heavy Precipitation Events was observed on 18 February 2018, when 10 stations simultaneously recorded heavy precipitation, consistent with the extensive cloud cover shown in the pixel maps. The validation results indicated reduced error and optimal statistical performance of ERA5 during high-intensity Heavy Precipitation Events. In 50% of the events, the center of mass of cloud cover was located southeast of Tabriz station, with a spatial cloud extent (TCC ≥ 0.7) of 1, indicating 100% cloud cover. The maximum spatial cloud coverage among the 16 events occurred on 3 February 2006, whereas the minimum value (0.43) was recorded on 30 March 2018.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Cloudiness
Era5 Reanalysis Data
Heavy Rainfall
Northwest of Iran
Akbary, M. & Sayad, V. (2021). Analysis of climate change studies in Iran. Physical Geography Research, 53(1), 37-74. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2021.301111.1007528 [Persian]
Alijani, B., Khosravi, M., Mahmood, & Esmailnejad, M. (2011). A synoptic analysis of January 6, 2008 heavy precipitation in the southeast of Iran. Journal of Climate Research, 1(3–4), 3–14. https://sid.ir/paper/213093/en [Persian]
Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster, P., Kerminen, V.-M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., Lohmann, U., Rasch, P., Satheesh, S., Sherwood, S., Stevens, B., & Zhang, X. (2013). Clouds and aerosols. In T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, & P. M. Midgley (Eds.), Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 571–657). Cambridge University Press.
Eskandari Damane, H., Zehtabian,G., Khosravi, H., Azarnivand, H. & Barati, A. A. (2020). Simulation and forecasting of climatic components of temperature and precipitation in arid regions (Case study: Minab plain). Geography, 18(66), 110-128. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.27172996.1399.18.3.7.6  [Persian]
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., & Zhang, H. (2021). The Earth’s energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 923–1054). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009
Ghadami,F., Hejazizadeh, Z. & Alijani, B. (2018). Identifying the circulation systems of Ward Sepehr in relation to hazardous rainfall in the Karkheh catchment area. Geography, 16(58), 21-32. https://mag.iga.ir/article_253444.html?lang=en [Persian]
Ghavidel, F., R.Banafsheh, M. & Mohammadi, G. H. (2024). Analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of clouds in the basin of the Urmia Lake. Journal of Hydrogeomorphology, 11(39), 40-19. doi: 10.22034/hyd.2024.59481.1714 [Persian]
Gholami,A., Jalali, M., Mirmousavi, H. & raispour, K. (2024). Review and Analysis of Annual Cloudiness Cycles in Iran (1991-2021). Climate Change Research, 5(19), 1-18. doi: 10.30488/ccr.2024.442999.1201 [Persian]
Halimi, M., Rezaei, M., Mohammadi, C., & others. (2017). Association between cloudiness and rainfall over Fars province in Iran. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 42(10), 671–676. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373917100077
 
Hedjazizadeh,Z., Karbalaee, A. & Kazemiazarr, M. (2025). Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events in East Azerbaijan Province. Geography, 22(83), 1-20. doi: 10.22034/jiga.2025.2048574.1363 [Persian]
Huang, H., Wang, Q., Liu, C., & Zhou, C. (2024). Optimal estimation of cloud properties from thermal infrared observations with a combination of deep learning and radiative transfer simulation. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 17(12), 7129–7141. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-7129-2024
Huang, X., Cole, J. N. S., He, F., Potter, G. L., Oreopoulos, L., Lee, D., Suarez, M., & Loeb, N. (2013). Longwave band-by-band cloud radiative effect and its application in GCM evaluation. Journal of Climate, 26(2), 405–467. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00535.1
Mishra, A. K. (2019). On the linkage between changes in cloud cover and precipitation extremes over Central India. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 86, 163-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.05.002
Mostafaii, H., Alijani, B., & Saligheh, M. (2015). Synoptic analysis of widespread heavy rains in Iran. Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards, 2(4), 65–76. https://doi.org/10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.65 [Persian]
Muthiah, K., Arunya, K. G., Sridhar, V., & Patakamuri, S. K. (2025). Heavy Rainfall Impact on Agriculture: Crop Risk Assessment with Farmer Participation in the Paravanar Coastal River Basin. Water, 17(5), 658. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17050658
Naghavi, M., Alijani,B., Akbari,M. & Fattahi, I. (2021). Relationship between topographic indices and inclusive rainfall in Alborz mountainous region (research article). Geography, 19(68), 51-67. https://mag.iga.ir/article_245414.html?lang=en [Persian]
Nasiri, D., Borna, R., & Zohourian Pordel, M. (2024). Detection of the effect of cloud microphysical structure on precipitation in Khuzestan province using MODIS cloud products. Journal of Geographical Studies, 24(72), 25. https://doi.org/10.52547/jgs.24.72.471 [Persian]
Raispour, K. & Razmi, R. (2020). Estimation of Cloud Fraction in the Atmosphere of Iran Using Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Iran-Water Resources Research, 16(3), 257-271. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.17352347.1399.16.3.18.6 [Persian]
Sadeghi, A., pazhoh,F. & Rezaei,M. (2023). Identification and analysis of sea level pressure patterns of heavy and pervasive precipitation autumn season in the western part of Iran. Geography, 21(76), 211-237. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/http://dor.net/dor/20.1001.1.27833739.1402.21.76.10.1 [Persian]
Salahi, B. & Shahi, A. (2025). Assessment of Uncertainty of Reanalyzed Snow Depth in Northwestern Iran Using Era5-Land and Merra-2. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 1(15), 132-152. doi: 10.22067/geoeh.2025.95012.1604 [Persian]
Shadpour, A. & Lashgari, H. (2020). Synoptic-Satellite Analysis of Heavy Snow Occurrence in Guilan Province (Case Study on January 13, 2008). Geography, 17(63), 60-75. https://mag.iga.ir/article_246005.html?lang=en [Persian]   
Shahi, A. & Salahi, B. (2025). Spatial and Temporal Assessment of the Accuracy of Precipitation Estimates from the ERA5-Land Reanalysis Database in Isfahan Province over the Past Two Decades. Geography, 23(86), 43-69. doi: 10.22034/jiga.2025.2066496.1426 [Persian]
Shahi, A. & Salahi, B. (2025). Tracking moisture sources and analysis of instability indicators leading to heavy rains in Northwest Iran. Researches in Earth Sciences, 16(1), 128-151. doi: 10.48308/esrj.2025.235940.1225 [Persian]
Stathopoulos, S., Gemitzi, A., & Kourtidis, K. (2024). Statistical downscaling of remote sensing precipitation estimates using MODIS cloud properties data over Northeastern Greece. Remote Sensing in Earth Systems Science, 7(2), 113–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41976-024-00107-1
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2025). How will climate change affect extreme precipitation across the United States? Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/extreme-precipitation
Wu, Y., Gao, J., & Zhao, A. (2024). Cloud properties and dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau—A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 248, 104633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104633
Xie, X., Ma, L., Yao, J., & Mao, W. (2025). Spatiotemporal Variability of Cloud Parameters and Their Climatic Impacts over Central Asia Based on Multi-Source Satellite and ERA5 Data. Remote Sensing, 17(15), 2724. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17152724
Yao, B., Teng, S., Lai, R., Xu, X., Yin, Y., Shi, C., & Liu, C. (2020). Can atmospheric reanalyses (CRA and ERA5) represent cloud spatiotemporal characteristics?. Atmospheric Research, 244, 105091. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105091
Zhou, C., Zelinka, M., & Klein, S. (2016). Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget. Nature Geoscience, 9(12), 871–874. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2828