نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
1 استادیار گروه علوم انسانی و اجتماعی دانشگاه فرهنگیان، البرز، ایران.
2 استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشجوی دکترای امنیت ملی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران.
عنوان مقاله [English]
In the field of politics and global relations, all countries, in addition to enjoying their strengths, always face many challenges and threats in order to survive and continue their political existence. Israel, that formed as a Jewish state by the conspiracy of the great powers in the twentieth century and in the heart of one of the Muslim countries of the West Asian region (Palestine), posed significant geopolitical challenges for both the Muslim countries of the region and itself. Affected by these challenges, it is concerned about his future and the continuation of his political life. Hence, some experts believe that this regime will not be able to overcome the massive volume of its internal and international problems in the coming decades, and as a result, a vague and dark future awaits it. Among these experts is Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, stated: "After the end of these nuclear talks, I heard the Zionists in occupied Palestine say that at the moment, with these talks, we are relieved of Iran's concerns for 25 years; I answer that you will not see the next 25 years. (Khamenei, 2015)». Therefore, the present article seeks to answer the fundamental question of what are the most important weaknesses and geopolitical challenges of Israel that may threaten the future of this state?
This research has been done in a descriptive-analytical method and has used a qualitative method of logical reasoning to analyze the required data and information obtained through libraries and documents and the opinions of experts on the strategic and geopolitical challenges of the Zionist regime.
Results and discussion
Based on the studies, the most important studies related to the opportunities and challenges facing the Zionist regime have been obtained and summarized as follows:
-Opportunities and strengths of the Zionist regime
It seems that at present Israel has good relations with some of its neighbors such as Egypt and Jordan (Ghasemi, 2004: 53). Israel has good economic capabilities such as benefiting from modern technology, increasing connection with the capitalist world, benefiting of free aid from the United States and Germany, and finally economic growth (Derakhsheh and Sadeghizadeh, 2015: 105).
- The internal challenges of the Zionist regime
Including the existence of Palestinian militants (Ghasemi, 2004: 71) The issue of Palestinian refugees, political, social and ethnic divisions such as: differences over the type of treatment of Palestinians, demographic composition in favor of Muslims; (Derakhsheh and Sadeghizadeh, 2015: 228), Popular encounters with different cultures, with each other, ideological differences and the challenge of legitimacy (Mohammadi, 2015: 7), Serious dependence on migration and the phenomenon of reverse migration, security of socio-political space.
- External or compound challenges of the Zionist regime
Such as: hydropolitical crisis and energy and relative weakness of the population (Eftekhari, 2001: 175), Difficult geographical situation and lack of strategic depth and feeling of threat from classic and guerrilla attacks (Dehghani, 2014), Regional and global isolation (Chupani and Myar Abbasi, 2011: 62), the Islamic Revolution of Iran and the process of Islamic awakening and the axis of resistance (Ghasemi, 2004: 54), Confirmation of the unreality of the Holocaust In some scientific researches (Dost Mohammadi, 2012: 183 and Weber, 2009: 64), increasing differences with the European Union (Faizi, 2015) are the most important external challenges of this regime.
- Predictions made about the vague future of the Zionist regime
King Abdullah II of Jordan warned that if the process of reconciliation in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine is not achieved, Israel's long-term future will be in danger (King Abdullah, 2010). The CIA, which had previously predicted the collapse of the South African regime as well as the collapse of the Soviet Union, has expressed doubts about the survival of the Zionist regime after the next 20 years (CIA, 2015). Sixteen US intelligence agencies and institutions have also studied the reverse migration of Jews from Palestine to their original countries and concluded that Israel will collapse by 2025 (Mohammadi, 2015: 9). A narration in Baharalanvar states: The Jews will come from the West [to the Arab region of the Middle East] to form their state in Palestine. The Arabs fought the Jews three times, and in the fourth stage, victory overshadowed them (Majlisi, 1070: 59). In the book The Fall of Israel, three things are stated as the political preconditions for the fall of Israel: 1- Replacing the compromising Arabs with Israel, with the Persians fighting against Israel 2- The emergence of a new leadership and alternative current during two historical movements 3- The emergence of anti-Zionist resistance in the Sham. (Al-Fatlawi and Zolghadr, 2006: 130-184). The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution also stated in 2015: Insha'Allah, for another 25 years, by God's help and by God's grace, there will be no such thing as the Zionist regime in the region.
In the international political climate and global relations, all countries have been affected by some internal and external challenges, worried about the future and the continuation of their political life. Meanwhile, some experts believe that Israel will not be able to overcome its internal and international problems in the future decades, and as a result, the issue of the destruction of this state is regularly raised in some political forums. This claim was examined with a list of internal challenges as well as external threats to Israel, in the form of theories such as the difficulty of adapting to the region's geopolitical environment and various narratives such as the CIA forecast and the leadership of the Islamic Revolution mentioned above. All this evidence, in general and based on the current situation, indicates the destruction of the political life of the Israeli, which should be cunsidered constantly of the Muslim countries in the region, especially the Palestinians.