Today, the approach to the future has moved beyond mere prediction and emphasizes building a desirable future through identifying influential factors and purposeful planning. In this regard, despite possessing historical, natural, and cultural capacities, the metropolis of Arak has not yet achieved a proper position in the national urban tourism system. This study aims to identify the key factors affecting the development of urban tourism in Arak. In terms of purpose, this research is applied, and in terms of nature and method, it is descriptive-analytical. The required data were collected through documentary studies and field surveys. In the first step, using a systematic review method, 32 variables affecting urban tourism development were identified across six dimensions: social, economic, environmental, institutional-managerial, physical, and technological. Subsequently, using structural analysis and cross-impact techniques, the relationships among variables were evaluated and analyzed in MICMAC software.
The results indicate that Arak's urban tourism system is in an unstable state. Among the examined variables, 32 factors were ranked. According to the findings, the variables with the highest direct and indirect influence on urban tourism development in Arak include: "urban development based on healthy city standards and environmental criteria," "effective local government and municipal management at national and international levels," "place-making and identity-building of the city's landscape with proper design in natural areas," "landscape aesthetics and architectural style," and "organization and rehabilitation of deteriorated urban textures."
The findings demonstrate that environmental, managerial, and physical factors are the most important drivers of tourism development in this city. The innovation of this research lies in its focus on the industrial city of Arak and its provision of a comprehensive framework for identifying and prioritizing the drivers of urban tourism development through structural analysis. This framework can serve as a foundation for policy-making and forward-looking planning in this domain.