Extended Abstract
Introduction
Urban tourism has emerged as one of the major drivers of sustainable urban development, playing a significant role in economic growth, job creation, social interaction, and enhancing the competitiveness of cities. Despite Iran's rich historical, cultural, and natural resources, many cities, including the metropolis of Arak, have not yet achieved a desirable position within the country's urban tourism system. Furthermore, previous studies have predominantly focused on the economic dimensions of tourism while paying limited attention to the comprehensive range of factors influencing urban tourism development. The novelty of this study lies in its multidimensional approach, which examines urban tourism development through six interrelated dimensions: social, economic, environmental, institutional–managerial, physical, and technological. Accordingly, this study aims to identify and prioritize the key drivers affecting the development of urban tourism in the metropolis of Arak by applying a futures studies approach and Structural Analysis (MICMAC), with the ultimate goal of providing a comprehensive framework for strategic planning and policymaking and promoting the effective utilization of the city's tourism potential.

Methodology
This study is applied-developmental in terms of its objective and adopts a descriptive–analytical research design based on a futures studies approach, integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods. In the first stage, a systematic and structured review of the relevant literature was conducted using documentary and library-based sources to identify the factors influencing urban tourism development. Based on the theoretical foundations and the identified indicators and variables, six analytical dimensions—social, economic, environmental, institutional–managerial, physical, and technological—were extracted. In the second stage, the Cross-Impact Analysis technique (Structural Analysis) was employed to evaluate the mutual influences among the identified variables. The resulting data were analyzed using MICMAC software, and finally, the key driving forces of urban tourism development were identified based on their levels of direct influence and dependence.

Results and Discussion
The findings of the MICMAC structural analysis revealed that the urban tourism system of Arak is characterized by a high level of dynamism and interdependence, indicating a relatively unstable system. The results identified urban development based on healthy city principles and environmental regulations, effective management by local government and municipalities, strengthening the city's visual identity and appropriate urban landscape design, improving urban aesthetics and architectural quality, and the regeneration of deteriorated urban areas as the most influential factors in both direct and indirect analyses of urban tourism development. In addition, variables such as the social capacity of the local community, the balanced distribution of tourism facilities and services, the enhancement of transportation infrastructure, participatory tourism planning, and tourism budgeting were recognized as major driving forces. The consistency of the highest-ranked variables across both direct and indirect influence analyses confirms the structural stability and strategic importance of these factors for the future development of urban tourism in Arak. Overall, the findings suggest that the sustainable development of urban tourism in Arak depends not merely on economic factors but requires an integrated approach that emphasizes environmental, managerial, physical, and social dimensions.

Conclusion
The findings of this study indicate that the development of urban tourism in Arak depends less on purely economic factors and more on improving the quality of the urban environment, enhancing the effectiveness of local governance, strengthening urban identity, and upgrading the physical quality of tourism spaces. The identified key drivers particularly urban development based on healthy city principles, effective local government management, strengthening the city's visual identity, the regeneration of deteriorated urban areas, and the enhancement of urban landscape quality play a decisive role in shaping the future of urban tourism in the city. The main novelty of this research lies in the simultaneous identification and prioritization of the key drivers of urban tourism development across six dimensions social, economic, environmental, institutional–managerial, physical, and technological using a futures studies approach and MICMAC structural analysis. Based on these findings, it is recommended that policymakers prioritize improving the urban environment, strengthening integrated tourism governance, regenerating urban spaces, developing tourism infrastructure, and allocating financial resources strategically to promote the sustainable development of urban tourism and enhance the competitiveness of the metropolis of Arak.