1 دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
2 دکتری اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.
3 استادیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران.
عنوان مقاله [English]
In order to famine exploring; temperature mean and daily data values , total of Pars abad station precipitation during 196-2016 statistical period for implementation of SPI Index were used in 1,3 and 6 months intervals and also TM Landset satellite images was applied for NDVI famine investigation. In anticipation part, CanESM2 was applied under RCP4.5 diffusion scenario in 5th series and also anticipating variables such as NCEP-NCAR 1961-2005 were applied. According to famine indices implementation (SPI and NDVI), temperature values anticipation and Pars abad station precipitation (CanESM2 model under RCP4.5 scenario), it was recognized that pasture growth situation in current conditions during flowering and seeding stages in some of main species of Ghouri chay aquiferous zone were improper. Mentioned main case was obtained through Pars abad Moghan station Ambrotermic curve and 1 month SPI famine index during 1375-1395 statistical periods, but, at the basis of anticipation temperature and precipitation values by using CanESM2 Model with 5th series model reports ; mentioned conditions will be drier during 1385-1477 and also pasture covering growth period will be reduced 6 months to 3 months. This case needs to management plans and aqueferous implementation in studied region as a natural reservoirs according to pasture high importance.